Namaste: Importance of Integral Capabilities

As the only topic of discussion on the media platforms, COVID-19 has become a basis of creating narratives. Some valid, some debatable and some, even outlandish. Now since the situation is so fluid that anticipating the end state is difficult, the adjectives to be used with the plans or the narratives will remain open to revision, as time progresses. Still, the urge of, “I told you so!” will ensure that a prophylactic barrage of prognosis will keep appearing in media, trying to fill the info space.

Recent reports in the media have been written on the idea that the Indian military should be “mobilised and deployed” in Aid of Civil Authority, to help in managing the situation. Undoubtedly, the defence forces are a unique national resource and can give a catalytic effect in management of any threat to the nation’s ‘way of life’. However, worst case scenario and doomsday predictions are not responsible journalism and beat experts need to graduate the reportage within realms of reason and not seek click-baits with tabloid type mongering.

The military has resources and capabilities that can be used in Humanitarian Assistance & Disaster Relief (HADR) challenges. What makes them effective is that the logistics and services are integral and co-opted in all plans. However, for governance, the optics of military deployment is also an indicator of the other non-military resources crossing critical point. To optimally utilize the complete spectrum of national resources it is prudent to integrate them and then deploy the correct resource-to-task, achieving efficiency and accruing the maximum benefits. Let the national leadership work.

The bigger take-away from this is also the importance of a strong internal manufacturing strength. Globalised supply chains work towards cost effectiveness, which may be rational in ‘normal times’ but are limiting in situations like today. Fission propagation of the Chinese Virus has highlighted how centralizing a majority of global manufacturing within the Chinese mainland is not only monopolistic but even weaponisable in asymmetric warfare.

Till now, it remains economically irrational to ask corporations and nations to shift away from the Chinese juggernaut. However statesmanship, bereft of myopic auditor counsel, will surely see the value of intrinsic capacity. Recently media reports emphasized on the benefits of even outsourcing the military logistics and services, for ‘cost cutting. Coming from years of relative peace, the thought process is mathematically correct but troubled times prove that while capacity is expensive, a lack of capacity is even more expensive. It was recently commented by an industrialist that he did not intend to take on the manufacturing of medical ventilators, as when it will come to procurement, the government will go for the lowest bidder (L1), which in all cases will be Chinese. Thus, he saw no merit in setting up capacity and investing in human capital. This case is not one-off. The concept is applicable to the complete manufacturing sector. No one expects a 100% in-house reality, however ‘Make in India’ has to genuinely be pushed beyond a mere slogan.

Like all before them, the ruling Xi Dynasty will do everything for holding on to power, but the elephant needs to preserve it’s heritage. Especially now when the world is doing Namaste, with folded hands.

The New Normal

COVID-19 is a topic on which everyone has an opinion but hardly anyone has an idea. Theories on its origins to prognosis on its behavior, the info space is full of chatter. While comparably it is like driving in the dark, we can only see as far as the headlights go. However, the appreciable impact this scenario will have is just an analytical seesaw swinging between the bad and the worse.

The global integrated market derives its fundamentals from the demand-supply equations. The need and ability for consumption mainly drive the demand segment pulling manufacturing and services along. A pandemic like the current one has forced a fall in the natural demand. It is not that the people don’t want the goods and services or don’t have the capacity to buy them, the isolation has ensured that they cant have anything by impacting everything from the last mile connectivity to the factory assembly lines. The primary sector being impacted, the services and derivatives stand no chance of any exponential piggybacking, as was the normal.

Morpheus, in his famous monologue asks Neo,” What is Real?” We today may like to introspect and ask,” What is Normal?” If normal is the way we live under the harmony of all variables life has to offer, then Normal is just our equilibrium to the world we get to live in. COVID-19 has changed this normal, for everyone. Crashed economies, lockdowns, broken supply chains, medical panic & reverse migration are defining the new normal.

Earlier when plagues used to strike, countries went to war or natural calamities struck, it used to effect only a geographically enclosed population. This Chinese Virus has globalized fear and anyone assuming isolation is just experiencing a temporary bliss of ignorance. The blame seekers are demanding answers from the middle kingdom, which are hardly likely to come and I would not like to mistake aggressive action for effective action.

The earth has been facing a lot of bad since time immemorial. I am not saying that the universe is evil, but it surely has a nasty sense of humour. The same manifests in the arrogant-ignorance of people. With a majority of the world confined to homes, the prominent action, by the powers, today is still perception management. And the narrative is lapped up as the convenient truth and the domino effect takes on from there. The primal instinct of survival thus makes people disconnected as long as they are not directly affected. Capitalism in such times also gives debatable decisions. To understand such capitalism, it depends on whether you are onboard a Boeing (737 Max) or on the board of Boeing.

This blog, unfortunately, comes at such a transitory phase that it is best to avoid conclusive assertions.  Nobody can see beyond the choices they don’t understand and when front yards become frontlines, the notion of choice becomes an illusion.