Force Preservation in the Online Social Domain – A Digital Camouflage

In this age of Digital Socialisation, the digital realm is increasingly becoming an important dimension of the contemporary battle-space. Much has been said and done about cyber-threats, however extremely limited or no attention is paid to the challenges that arise from the malicious use of openly available digital information on and around military organisations.

 Today, The adversary does not need significant resources or advanced cyber capabilities. To pose a threat, social media and connected technologies are easily accessible and they provide information and infrastructure that can be exploited by anyone with access to an internet-enabled computer.

 Social Media is a mix of human psychology (read social behaviour) with the internet of things. This is correct except that the human angle appears to be 70% and the network, the balance 30%. The personal internet was available even in the early 90s, but it was then the synthesis of the human urge to communicate with a person (a face) vis an IP address that brought the explosive growth of social media platforms. The arrival of the smartphone, the handheld connected computer, brought the world into our palms. The benefits of this convergence are many. That said, phones to watches, everything is becoming a computer. It may be surely an achievement to rejoice, but if everything is becoming a computer, then it is to be understood that everything is also becoming a potential surveillance device.

 The survival of any military force is a principal consideration in strategic planning and decision-making. It has implications that extend well beyond military operations and into issues such as public support and political cohesion. It is evident every day how the nation’s military protects it’s members. Recently media highlighted the steps taken by the Army for safeguarding soldiers against the coronavirus, over and above the measures constituted by the government. We have also seen how the security of various bases & ports, to guard these vital assets is a military function. Similar to such physical security, digital security is also an aspect that keeps the military planners on their toes.

 We have heard measures like app ban, smartphone ban, wearable devices ban etc highlighted in various reports coming out from the military. I won't deny that they are effective, but there is no silver bullet solution here. Being such pervasive technology, apps like Facebook and devices like smartphones & smartwatches are virtually adsorbed onto our daily lives. Their functionality is today a necessity with e-banking, e-commerce and even crucial contact tracing platforms being inescapable requirements. Thus, such a non-implementable total digital isolation, as a protective measure, is of limited value, to say the least.

 Separating mobile phones from defence personnel in official areas or during exercises and operations may be critical for operational security in many contexts, but it does not remedy the complex threats in the digital domain. An individual’s digital footprint is created over a period. The allied data-points get collected over years of internet activity, is processed through machine learning & artificial intelligence-based computational processes, creating an online profile. Leaving the smartphone outside a particular office, 5 days a week is a simple indicator that you work inside that office. Subroutines transmitting such location data from your device are even embedded in basic map applications and one does not need covert surveillance infrastructure to extract the same. Similar results can be concluded from analyzing any other interfaced app. Flightradar24 gives info on even Airforce C-17 flights, geotagged selfies have been known to reveal even isolated border locations and it does not matter if the photo is shared on Facebook or Whatsapp or even just emailed, the location metadata is embedded in the pic and has nothing to do with the app.

 The military may isolate the individual, but crowd-sourced open information has become a simpler way of getting critical inputs. Recently, a twitter handle posted an old photograph having officers of an elite unit. While many of those may have retired, the comments to the tweet by people having the urge to participate in a discussion, showcase their awareness and naturally seek acknowledgement, gave away the identities of many in the photograph. Cases of people identifying areas and commenting on the military significance of the same are routine and unfortunately can’t be wished away. Information about military capabilities, such as personnel and equipment numbers, can even be obtained from civilian and commercial sensors, such as footage from publicly available or misconfigured traffic and CCTV cameras. It is not that one event is detrimental to the security, but it is the long-term information matrix that can be webbed from such data points that creates the concern.

 The defeat of an adversary, by whatever mechanism, is a cognitive outcome. It is the accumulated stresses of combat and perceptions of a situation that leads to fear, flight, or surrender. A military can be made to perceive the enemy’s relative advantages as a battle unfolds and conclude (through cognition) that the cost of continuing will exceed the possible benefits. Trained for kinetic warfare, military leaders struggle to engage with the complete spectrum of the cyber domain, especially the open domain espionage. The adversary is so distributed that conventional thought of carpet-bombing or armoured punch-through can’t be employed and force-wide digital isolation is not a realistic long-term possibility.

This is where active, adaptive digital camouflage can appear as an option.

 Camouflage, as a concept, is many times confused with concealment. To camouflage is to merge with the surroundings to make you indiscernible to the observer whereas to conceal is to protect from view. Digital camouflage works on enmeshing military digital information with other ‘noise data’ thereby denying the enemy the ability to zero in on the information and process it into intelligence. But this has to be pre-emptive and adaptive. Pre-emptive measures that create systemic resilience against the malicious use of digital information are critical. Raising awareness about adversarial risks related to the social media information environment is a critical first step, but this general awareness needs augmentation with specific education activities, internal communication measures, evolving regulations etc. This countermeasure is likely to be preferred by militaries as it is based on fundamental deception operations. The measures should protect critical information in one or more of the following ways: minimizing predictable patterns of online behaviour & camouflaging indicators when they can’t be avoided by pairing them with meaningless changes giving out an alternative interpretation for the indicators. Once military commanders adapt these aspects in their mission plan, technical specialists can be tasked for implementation.

 

Extracting information from the open internet, especially with an overdose of social media posts, is an abundance of low-hanging fruit, where a small investment can pay large dividends. One can counter the adversary only by proactively keeping him occupied in the OODA loop. A distributed denial of opportunities, planned into the operational philosophy is the future on our doorstep. Camouflage is useful for concealment, but it is not a replacement for offensive capabilities. Force preservation in the digital domain needs to be integral in our strategic communication plan.

Agile Military

 In the study of considerations of various military operations the phrase “Flexibility” comes up often. The word assumes greater importance as it is a critical feature when we discuss offensive or defensive operations, counter insurgency or logistics & administration. In execution of any of these, the key is flexibility for a favorable result. The limitations in warfare are multifold complex and, in some ways, complicated when compared to writing concepts, even logical ones. People involved in defense force know that in hierarchical organisations like the services, flow of info, orders and authority is linear. Most documents and execution follow the waterfall concept where steps are sequential and quantified.

 

One would expect military organisations to be nimble and adaptive, for the simple reason that they plan for variable situations including the one which is least likely as a contingency. In the execution phase, these ‘set plans’ bring in a realm of order enabling ‘control’ and ‘predictability’ of successive phases. This attribute of planning actually changes the ‘design flexibility’ to a ‘constrained flexibility’.

 

We continue to evolve our concepts of operations by reeling in perspectives from the Age of Information. The ever-evolving technology in this age and its applications, plus connectivity, have evolved from the limited access to cross-linked information-based decision support systems.

 

The challenges of the 21^st Century like HADR, Non-State Actors, Nationless Corporations, Asymmetric Warfare & even Rogue States, are problems beyond the ability of any single actor or even a small set of very capable actors. For a successful handling of these challenges, the solution must involve a large, heterogeneous collective of entities working together. This collective is itself, complex and dynamic.

 

A more reasonable label for today’s world is the ‘Age of Interactions’. The Compounding technologies that layer above the framework of networks have given us unimaginable real-time interactions. Resultantly, events that may once have had isolated consequences, now generate consequences that have ripple effects and can quickly spin out of control. The viral nature of today’s interactions requires changes considering uncertainties and risks associated with complex endeavors. They cannot be reduced to manageable modules. What is needed is, both, a new mindset and problem-solving strategy. The most promising approach is to increase Agility. While agility is going to be an existential capability in the Age of Interactions, it is not an end unto itself and thus not a capability that should be maximized. Reasonable agility that can be sustainably scaled is the balance point between agile and traditional approaches.

 

Militaries seek hybrid structures and yet constrain the evolution with ‘command & control’. The word "control" does not describe it best because it indicates the philosophy that complex situations can be controlled; a sort of checklist giving options & actions to counter any emerging situations. This is a dangerous oversimplification. In the emerging multi-dimensional battlefield, the best that one can do is to create a set of conditions that improve the probability that a desirable outcome will occur and to change the condition when what is expected is not occurring. “Control” therefore is an emergent property, not an option to be selected.

 

Mapping from Scrum values, it appears that Focus & Convergence are more reasonable versions of Command and Control. They capture the essential aspects of command and control. They can also easily be understood by individuals without any prior knowledge of, or experience in the same. It appears more reasonable in situations of rapid grouping / regrouping of modular combat entities in maneuver warfare or any other entity that will be self-organizing as the operations progress.  These words do not carry any preconceived notions of how to achieve objectives. The focus hints directly at what is to be accomplished while being independent to the existence of someone in charge. Similarly, convergence denotes what the phrase “control” is meant to achieve without asserting the sequence / path.  

 

Incorporating agility cannot be a task. Change for change’s sake is not Agility. Agility implies effectiveness. An entity’s capabilities and behaviors cannot be agile unless they enable the entity to maintain or improve it’s measures of value. Being agile requires responsiveness. In order to be responsive, an entity must be able to recognize, in a timely manner, potentially significant changes in the external macro and microenvironment (read an adversary, or to itself). It should be able to recognize what would be a proportionate response. An appropriate response would include timely acting. In the context of military, agility will always be uniquely defined as per the threats & the capacities or the enablers & impediments exclusive to us. Given this, within the framework, how do we ingrain agility?

 

The first key to agility is “People”. To have an agile force, scrumming needs to be done on this resource, to etch agile practices. The upgrade to an agile manpower to the military is a complex problem.  HR teams will need to continuously deliver on this. It’s a military force; there can be no down time to process the changes.  It might be easy to change the way people work but extremely difficult to change the way people think. Militaries are virtually living microcosms drilled in battle procedures, which are exact opposite of agile. There are existing aspects that can be leveraged for easing in agility, for example hierarchy. In making organizational level changes, like theaterisation & joint commands, frameworks like Scrum (a modified version customized for target teams focused on envisaged desired structures) can be gradually incorporated in the hierarchy. This could be done on manageable collectives to eventually cover the entire services. This would be beneficial as these hierarchies are grouped to train, operate & deliver as units.

 

We are a successful military with sound principles. Why do we need to incorporate organisation-wide changes that are so radical to our fundamentals?

 

This is not a call for change. It is a case for adapting, improving and getting prepared to avoid a ‘future shock’. It may appear to be a conceptual journey across the landscape. It comprises of Complexity with variables of people, networks and the nature of command & control. In the end no structural or functional change in a military organisation can be called sustainable if it is not agile enough for mitigating continuous change. The exchequer would prefer Adaptive Organisations for Effect Based Operations. These aren’t possible while using world war constructs and yet this is not something out of the blue. Special Forces are the ready examples of an agile outfit. They place Individuals and interactions over processes, mission success over milestones, resource collaboration beyond designated tasks & responding to change over following a plan.

 

That’s an agile military manifesto.

Territorial Claims: China’s Greed

Time is analog. No country, that exists as today, has had a perfect run. History of the world, though the best chronology of our life on the planet, suffers from the flaw of human subjectivity. It ranges from being revealing and enlightening at times to just being a set of lies, agreed upon. So from what we have and what we can make out from it, civilizations, countries and nation states have had their ups and downs and those transitions have defined something bigger than just history; our evolution.

 

I had written about the obsolescence of imperialism in today’s world (https://lifeingigahertz.blogspot.com/2020/05/crimea-river.html) and how the same begets diminishing returns. But while the world maneuvers through challenging times, China, has started serving us it’s Revenge Soup, a dish served (cold) after brewing for a century (of humiliation). For those who like to maintain lists, the smallest one today would surely be titled: China’s Friends. With the middle kingdom, all that is needed to suffer a territorial dispute is physical proximity. If you live near China, then Beijing wants your land.

 

2020 has taught us how fragile our comfort zones are. The marvels of the last century, from industrialization, technology, globalization and digital prosperity, have all been proven weak in front of life threatening events like the corona virus spread. Fundamentals of economic demand and supply failed in the absence of emotional or psychological demand (i.e. People, with money refusing to buy goods / services). The business of excess, that boosted global consumerism and gave rise to double-digit growth, lies idle, shattering the virtual value bubble we had assumed as our datum. Fiat currencies served well for naturalizing virtual wealth derived from hedges and futures, fooling us into a manipulative transactional system. However, bereft of a gold standard, the same do not shoulder the strength to stabilize a real crash when the astronomical debt will need physical mitigation.

 

This is where China has modulated from imperialism to expansionism. Realizing that a majority of money wealth today is just bytes on a system and can be manipulated and controlled through democratic banking systems, the yearning of the “Real” estate as the scale of future power and influence is what china seeks. Be it through debt-traps, military posturing or straight buyouts, china is after land, the one resource completely out of production. In 2014, China supplanted Canada as the largest share of foreign buyers of US residential real estate, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. In 2018 dollars, Chinese buyers accounted for roughly 25% of total foreign investment in US residential real estate. The case is the same in other countries, like in Africa where large agricultural tracts now bear Han ownership to even military bases in Djibouti that fit the three considerations of property ownership: location, location and location.

 

As an emotional response, one would say it is instinctive that "the child who is not embraced by the village will burn it down to feel its warmth” but this is where countries need to differ from individuals. It is complex to void responsibility of ills inflicted by past generations but once we graduate from individual to national consciousness, the current greater good deems higher precedence than past balance sheets. And if we all apply salt to historical hurt, then the whole humanity would be at conflict with itself and probably would have self destroyed by now. But with the passage of time, complicated human nature has accepted the reality of forgetting, even if not forgiving, history.

 

Coming back to time and it’s analog nature, we are all just in phases of our existence. Centuries ago, Rome was the biggest power, Greece in another time, Mongols once reigned the world, Cholas ruled the seas and Sun did not set under the Union Jack. Yet here we are today, a new phase with new players trying to rule the world.  A few millennia from now, this all will just be timestamps and faded memories.

 

If we apply the convoluted historical logic for claims, should India be asking for the Maurya Empire, or the Chola, or the Mughal? How far back do we go? As the fourth largest country in the world, a few or even a few thousand square miles will not change the geography of China and even a few million square miles wont douse its greed justified by the excuse of humiliation. Till China moves on to its next quest with the mindset of another phase of evolution, the world has no other way but to counter this animalistic urge with sticks and stones. India has a tough draw despite the Himalayan barrier and China’s assertions now border on humour with perpetual changing boundary claims and hankering on global media platforms, ironically banned in its own mainland. For a nation focused on human upliftment, we are doing well in handling these sideshows. We can just go ahead making more friends; it is for the Chinese to see how far do they want to go before being consumed by their own fire.

Anechoic Rescue

It is hard to say, whether there is an increase in the number of conflicts or just an increase in the number of conflicts being reported. The 21^st century might best be defined by the information revolution, but there is a long way to go and we still have another six months to survive 2020. The word ‘conflict’ primarily takes us into the realm of battles & wars, however, that aside, we today are facing conflicts of belief, accepted truths and perspectives that are getting eroded away because of our ever changing definition of life.

 

For a long time, living has been defined through quantized levels above survival. The genius of man, built upon a mammal that could stand on two feet, had opposable thumbs and proportionally the largest brain, gave this blue planet a civilization highly evolved in all sensory experiences. As true as the existence of matter & anti-matter, humans have balanced the tussle between their good and evil. Our development brought great value and learning, but everything that makes life easy is not necessarily good. We, today, have both the best medicines to cure and the worst weapons to hurt.

 

In such a scenario, it is information that makes each human more equal as the possession of the same bears no physical limits. Realized to be vital, the control of this democracy, bereft of rabble, is today the battlefield of Internet giants and governments alike. The simpler times that we reminisce had little info flow, limited options and thus the bliss of ignorance. Issues existed as much as today. The Moore’s Law growth has given us more but has started a fire that has become self-consuming in nature. A crucial part of information architecture is to design a user experience or user interface to ensure that just the right amount of information appears on a webpage or app screen: enough to make it relevant but not so much that it causes information anxiety which is not only a capitalistic side effect but also a symptom of our desire to not focus on the moment. The two combined are the reason and alibi for our ever-losing searches for facts on where we are today.

 

As the major focus on all news media nowadays, the data on Black Lives Matter on platforms like google search, AI driven articles, social media and commercial news (that is the closest I can phrase them) has muddled a social uprising into a cultural and political leverage for infructuous sloganeering leading towards everything except a rational path to the solution. The news on the clashes between the Indian and Chinese Armies on the Indo-Tibet Line of Actual Control too is so overloaded with expert-analyses that the small amount of official versions fade away in doubts. Corona Virus is holding on to relevance at a high cost of lives, but information flow on any of these issues has neither aided resolution nor aspired the confidence of truth. Then why do we fuel this?

 

·      We love being victims: While there is a psychological reason, but our addiction to bad news is the easy proof on this.

·      We are Bored: Event info is constantly updating giving us something to constantly consume. Just see the screen times we waste on just surfing.

·      Perpetual availability: The media has trained us to expect fast news and instant updates as the default way to stay informed.

·     Virtual Social Capital: By constantly consuming, we always have something new to share with friends and colleagues, thus positioning ourselves as being ‘in the know’. The number of people with the ‘I’ syndrome on social media is one indicator.

·      We ‘binge consume’ info: We approach info like the next episode of a Netflix Series. We are desperate to find out what happens next and follow the narrative to its conclusion, which keeps us clicking for more.

Information Overload is not the same as “Sensory Overload.” This is when your mind is bombarded with images, sounds and sensations that overload the brain. The brain can handle tens of millions of signals from our senses every second. Think of the number of light sensors within the eye, and equate this to the resolution of a digital camera (and the corresponding file size of the photos it produces). Then include the thousands of touch-sensitive areas of the body, and the range of our hearing. But we can still deal with all of this, because the brain has had tens of millions of years of evolution to deal with this. Compare those tens of millions of years to the few decades we’ve been dealing with information such as TV & Internet. Our brains are still learning to deal with this.

 

So in the scheme of things, there are the information controllers (facebook, google, news channels), the people who pay for that (advertisers / sovereign propaganda) and then there is ‘you’. Yes, you deserve to know. It is your right. But do you need to know? Is it relevant? And do you need it all the time? Most of the info we crave is “Just-In-Case” while it could even be acceptable “Just-In-Time”. De-clutter your life. Don’t let technology fool you into being in control of information. Your twitter notifications, or instagram likes are just added echoes to the noise you don’t need in the first place. They fog your thoughts and prevent you from listening to yourself. Make your space anechoic and listen to your thoughts. If god never wanted you to listen to yourself, the ears would have been far from the brain.

 

I don’t advise isolation, we are social animals. Internet media is a great platform with endless possibilities. Network news is a good check on the powers and open information is great empowerment. It is just that ‘you’ need to be in control. Like medicines, there is an ideal Minimal Effective Dose (MED). Every pill has an MED, and after that specific dose, no other positive effect occurs and overdose is obviously harmful. Consuming information is somewhat similar. You need just a precise amount of it to help you to achieve your goals and put your plans into action. Anything more than that won’t improve your results any further and overload is the bane we want to avoid.

 

In this age of information, “you” are the product and you, yourself, are the buyer. Value yourself.

Up Above the World. So High.

Air Travel, in the times of Corona is more like a necessary evil. Flying commercial still remains the fastest and the most convenient way to move around, especially after getting habitual of a few hour hops vs an overnighter on the road. We are still arguing that international flights, primarily from hotspots in China and other nations should have been stopped late last year only and saved us the agony of a rising curve that was predicted to flatten. The prudence of that aside, the ability of air travel in carrying the virus has certainly been accepted and has changed the airline industry for good.

 

Today, taking a flight implies masking up for the cab journey with a topping of gloves and healthy dollops of sanitizer till just the security check. One is then layered with a face shield and if you are unlucky in the middle row, a PPE gown to save you from your neighbours, in the socially cramped economy class. Fear, precaution or just instructions to follow, the feel of flights is history and it has also taken away the oddly satisfying meals and the seriously debatable coffee that kept you up but made the next seat guy snore away.

 

Emotions are strange chemical reactions. They make seemingly quantized events like going from Place A to B an experience to remember and letting go, a hard choice. The recent take off was ironically a sinking feeling. It was a “Surgical Strike” on the senses with the cabin smelling of strong disinfectant and the crew dressed like surgeons. From being a poly-sensory experience that I was looking for, the flight got downgraded to candy crush and a constant nagging in the head, “are we there yet?” It offends the human ego that nature is indifferent to us. However much we want, the mother elephant and her unborn are not coming back and this virus is not going away. Living with difficult truths, unfortunately, is normal.

 

Another view on this new reality of protective gear and sanitizing liquids is on the volume of discard these single use items create. Their medical-hazard aside, the pollution side-show itself is a big add, on the plastic choking of the planet. The 170 odd passengers and crew, after taking off from mom’s airport and landing at the son’s airport (Bless their souls. Great leaders), disposed 170 masks, face-shields and about 50 PPE gowns. And this happening with every flight presents a substantial source of the new-normal pollution.

 

Our country has shown great ingenuity in exponentially increasing the production of PPEs and sanitization chemicals. Currently, PPE manufacturers use materials such as polyester, polyamide, polyethylene and other polymers. As good citizens we may assume that PPEs, being primarily plastic conform to recycling processes, but PPE is not recyclable (with the existing processes) or biodegradable, and it needs to be treated as waste. Sanitization chemicals contain ethyl alcohol, isopropyl alcohol or both to kill bacteria and viruses on hands and surfaces. Alcohols have long been known to kill germs by denaturing the protective outer proteins of microbes and dissolving their membranes. However, the excessive use that we see today needs another look as the solvents are sure to find way into the water systems or even the food chain and may become a concern through bio-magnification.

 

So, what can we do about the PPE waste issue? Gloves, masks, and wipes are playing a vital role in our lives right now as a way to protect people from contracting and spreading the corona virus. Still, harming our environment and possibly polluting the already endangered water sources should not be a necessary consequence. Sustainability of production, use, discard processes and by-products needs to be the foremost focus in this case. Using biodegradable materials, adding end of service indicators and making multi-use items instead of ‘single-use and discard’ variants, come to mind as options for a better PPE. But these ideas require quite an investment from a manufacturer’s perspective and a deviation of the lowest bidder syndrome from the buyer’s side. The easiest and cheapest way to market is rarely, if ever, the most sustainable way.

 

An interesting thought here could be the Circular Economy for the PPEs. A Manufacturer-Distributor combine could cater for PPE supplies to major bulk breaking points like airports, hospitals etc and collect the used PPEs and ensure a systematic discard / recycling. It holds value, as the economics of scale will allow investments into retooling of manufacturing processes as well as recycling procedures, leading to an environmentally safer lifecycle for the now inescapable PPE. It is a major change in this recently booming industry as ‘Before-Corona’ the hand sanitizer or the PPE were more of an emergency requirement than a routine and that has brought a whole new scale to fore. We may wish or impose environmental prudence on industries, but realistically, corporate sustainable development is not environmental or ethical but economic; if it fails economically as a business concept, as an engine of innovation, then it fails.

 

How can you help? Simplify the problem, wipe away the propaganda, listen to experts and use common sense. Wear cloth mask in safer areas, an N-95 mask is not needed everywhere. Use and discard PPE in the proper way and please remember, just because it is from a public dispenser, you don’t need a ‘large’ of hand sanitizer; it’s a different type of alcohol. And yes, please wait for sometime before crushing social distancing as soon as the aircraft lands.

Disclaimer: This was not my flight. Image from Twitter

 

Take the World Environment Day as an excuse to start. Long after COVID-19 is solved, we still will have to protect the Earth.

Crimea River

China is the latest Honours Subject from the University of Social Media. The recent standoff reported from Ladakh and similar incidents in Sikkim etc seem to have taken some attention away from the overwhelming corona issue. However, a major realisation has occurred that, ‘boredom’ is a strong emotion. Barely a few months into the COVID crisis, with loss of lives and livelihood on the rise, we already have a bored Pakistan pushing in terrorists, while seeking loans and China playing the intimidation game at third party borders; India – Tibet and India - Nepal. While globally, Venezuela’s collapse, Hong Kong protests and the Taliban agreement also deserves focused attention, our immediate neighbourhood has plenty to fill our hands.

 

Papers, TV and the net is full of what allegedly happened, what might be happening, backgrounders, China’s Theatre Commands, Theaterisation of Indian forces and who said what. Serious operational matter for some, but Home Theatre for most. Disputes below a threshold, as an external policy have been a favourite amongst imbalanced relationships. Economic tinkering, Election meddling or territory slicing, the world has been seeing it all. Callously unconcerned, as long as it was someone else’s problem.

 

Annexation of land is not new. Despite being a taboo in recent international politics, territorial assertions have been happening. And while they do cause much heartburns and human plight, wars also have not brought decisive results for the same, except maybe the Falklands War. We still have the Line of Control with Pakistan after many wars. Even creation of Bangladesh and an all out defeat of Pakistan, did not lead to the integration of Jammu & Kashmir with Pakistan occupied J&K and Gilgit Baltistan, while Shaksgam Valley & Aksai Chin remained with China adding on to the unsettled borders of the Heaven on Earth.

To be clear, Borders have shifted throughout history and there will always be groups that, for ethnic or religious reasons, feel they are stranded in the wrong country. But allowing a new nation such as East Timor or South Sudan to break free, usually through a negotiated and internationally recognised referendum, is very different from allowing an existing nation to forcibly seize part of a neighbour’s territory. China has long threatened to militarily integrate Taiwan, Israel vs Palestine has been a continuous struggle but Crimea is the example that comes to mind when annexation is spoken of. Be it reasons of region, religion or access to the Black Sea, Crimea is now added to the list of disputed territories that everyone knows and cant do much about. These regions eventually harmonise to an equilibrium that enables life to go on with the notion of choice remaining an illusion created by the haves for the have-nots.

 

Every time there is a standoff with PLA in our northern borders, it is dealt with. How it gets reported, is another story. It is difficult to pin the reason or blame for that, as when the news is not raising patriotic fervour on the military’s work it is giving out analysis on how the budgets should be slashed for audit prudence, leaving both aspects reduced to symbolism for prime time. This gives little space to summarise simple facts:- We have threats on the borders. We need to contain them in the present and we need to build credible & effective deterrence for the future. Foreign policy can be based on intentions, but defence policy can only be based on capability.

 

Game of political optics aside, India today is not a push over. If this is a retribution for reducing imports, asking WHO did what, calling out OBOR a money trap and supporting countries troubled by Chinese imperialistic designs, then, it must be realised that, isolated military misadventures in Ladakh wont change the exposed public face of the Middle Kingdom. Yes, there are ways that China can hurt us, but there are also ways for us to act where China won’t like it. What and how much to do is best left to the experts on the ground.

 

Thing that baffles the most is, what does China get from all this? Bad relations with most neighbours, further worsening of international image, a synonym of everything cheap to buy but expensive to own and a friendless global playground. On the Indian side as well, the Himalayas are a natural watershed and Tibet a beyond economical pursuit. None of the southern neighbours have ever threatened the British drawn limits. It has always been the Chinese who have continued to nurture disputed areas, as if looking for excuses for disputes. Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal and India, all have suffered the imposed superiority of Chinese through military incursions, leaving only Pakistan that has traded partial sovereignty for border peace while assuming enemy of my enemy is a friend.

 

As an aspiring superpower, China could have done better by leveraging its civilisation, culture and diversity towards a more symbiotic ecosystem with its neighbours and global partners. Taking a path of human inclusivity and mutual benefits for spreading the soft power of their oriental way of life and added to this its industrial powerhouse would have ushered a different century for the world, possibly bereft of a lot of infructuous exchanges.

 

Towards Ladakh or Sikkim, favourable weather incursions may be an effective ploy to temporarily channelize opinion, but it can’t serve any long-term gain. The second biggest standing armed forces won’t wither away like some Guangzhou Counterfeit Nike and the colder it gets, the harder it will be for the dragon to breathe fire. The buildup might cause political entropy here but that is only because a democracy affords that to its people. Being non-existent back in China, out of fear of the nature of free will, the people there don’t get to decide who will be their country’s enemies or friends.

 

Sometimes we are just collaterals in our wars against ourselves. Snatching away doesn’t work with kids and toys or with men and territory. History is not destiny and rules of Crimea don’t apply to  the Himalayas. If you are sad that the world does not take you well, change yourself. From being a poor and weak country that not many liked, you are now a rich and strong country that not many like. Fighting us won’t change that. Cry Me a River.

Netflixing Life

It has become ‘normal’ to say that we are headed towards a ‘new normal’. The most similar analogy I see is the query, ‘Who let the Dogs Out?  Nobody knows ‘who’, but it’s catchy! We can only try and conjecture as to what that new state will be, but then, what else are ‘lockdown analysts’ for? Being a digital warrior, the binary scenarios I play are, End of the World vs Evolutionary Prosperity. The real life will give us something in between, but it highlights the futility of worrying, as in either case choices remain a linear progression of options.

 

We may try holding on to the past, it is not a bad thing, but life has been changing anyway. The dusty old bazaars were sidelined by the convenient Superstores, then the malls pushed them aside and made shopping a getaway experience till eCommerce exploited our inertia and made our devices the market and us, a product. Entrepreneurship has also changed from the idea of just giving the people what they want, to design thinking; giving people a need they never knew they had and then selling goods and services to fulfill that. So apart from the fact that we are being forced to change in a short timeframe, this situation is just ‘normal’.

 

Fareed Zakaria, on this change said, in one of his shows, that this opportunity that we have got to formalize a new way of life can also be used to deviate from the ills of the past that had got ingrained in our lifestyles. Aspects like excessive burning of fossil fuels, meat production, wasteful electricity consumption and even population growth were never sustainable models and as we sit and decide about the future of our civilisation, cleaning up the canvas and harmonising with the earth just seems even more prudent. As far as us in India, it should be easy. For centuries, life on Jambudvipa was based on balance with nature and now when the multinationals (actually corporations beyond nations) package our ancient concoctions like Turmeric Latte, Toothpaste with Salt / Charcoal, disposable leaf plates, 9 Day fasting, Yoga etc. An endless list keeps scrolling on how fundamentally strong we, as a civilisation were and even today, are.

 

The change will neither be immediate nor easy. Years of vested interests and invested mindsets will friction the move, but they, like many others in the past, are likely to get ‘Netflixed’. The popular streaming service and many similar others today are hot-stocks and the story is same for most non-contact service providers. The twentieth century buzzword, “Globalisation” stands to shrink to such non-contact products while giving way to ‘regional self dependence’ in other physical consumer goods. Like it or not, democracy in manufacturing will define the next industrial wave. Intellectual Property will stay as the fundamental ownership, but growth will be in down-scaled factories catering to regional markets and eventual progression in 3D Printing may further lead to corporations like Amazon supplying substrates and people printing whatever they need in the comfort of their homes.

 

Still as social animals, we have been known to move mountains to be with each other. Can the idea of long-term isolation be sold to such a mind set? Or can we partially sacrifice privacy and develop individual sensor bands (like a Fitbit) that broadcast our real-time infection status and tag us and our surroundings, Go / No Go. Fear of misuse and stigma will always remain, but like hijackings and 9/11 changed Airport Security, this sensor based social life, might not be a distant future. Tracking apps, in a still nascent form, are already in use in many countries, including India (Arogya Setu). 5G bandwidth may just be the platform needed for billions of these active devices to talk to each other. The race to dominate this sector is about to explode.

 

 It is strange that solutions to life, Post Corona, being thought of today, lie at the extreme ends of the time spectrum. Ancient and futuristic ideas are converging for maintaining our average modern lives and this new cocktail may just be the cheers we need to welcome life as it will be known. Nature is divine in its ways, just when the caterpillar thought the world is over, it became a butterfly.

 

Where the Streets Have No Name

It is often said that migrants, like other ethnic minority workers, are the last hired and first fired. This is certainly the case today as a consequence of the global economic and financial crisis. Businesses are no longer hiring new staff and there are major lay-offs, generally starting with dismissal of temporary workers. Some companies are resorting to adhoc arrangements, such as reduced hours and pay for personnel remaining on the payroll or putting workers on part-time employment or unpaid leave, but, the growing uncertainty leaves more question marks than assurances.

It was a short period of ‘denial’ before the world woke up to Covidisation. Reality jumped many quantum levels with a still continuous redefining of the stable state. Those who risked being in the valence shell in hope of keeping connections, suffered the lack of nucleus protection and the nature of the virus that indiscriminately made all bonds, lethal. The lockdowns have emerged as the only prevention while we search for a cure, but #StayAtHome is not an option for everyone. Especially poor migrants for whom home is just a notion and not where the heart is.

Migrants tend to be among the workers most hit by economic downturns for several reasons. Migrant labour is often used, as a cyclical buffer and a skill balancer, like other macroeconomic policies aimed at maximising growth and minimising unemployment. From a social and political perspective, in times of economic insecurity, migrants easily become scapegoats to xenophobic sentiments and discrimination. Domestic migrants at all levels, at least have the security of nationhood and federal structures, it is the lower strata of trans-national migrants that suffers social and economic alienation without the safety net of social or governmental support.

However, many migrant workers are not returning home voluntarily. They tried keeping hope in the re-rise of their livelihoods but hope soon became a function of money, as no light could be seen across the tunnel and the voids that awaited them back home. This was the case even when they were offered financial incentives to voluntarily depart. Simply put, they were just choosing the bad option from the worse. As aircrafts return from all over the world, naval ships make Samudra Setu, trains carry interstate transients and the picture of families walking back home, on endless highways, becomes an uncomfortable routine, this ‘flight to safety’ is becoming a parallel pandemic.

This return ‘home’ process broadly has two major impacts; the likelihood of an import of corona virus infections and a major drop in international remittances. Policies and processes will try and offset the virus threat, but the drying up of money inflow will hurt ones who depend on it the most. India gets approximately $80 Billion in remittances, a big chunk of that has already started fading. This financial loss gets further amplified when the out of work migrants fall back on the system that depended largely on their contributions.

So whose problem is this migrant crisis? When there is lesser to go around, a different trait of human psychology comes to fore. Employers have no sales to save jobs, government has less tax to offer welfare and the society that had adopted the comforts of excess, wants to hold on to them. In India, the scale of the issue and the compassion fatigue caused by the over-exposure on all media platforms further worsens the case. We hardly remember the lifeless body of a Syrian boy Aylan Kurdi and the new generation is bereft of the wounds of Partition. Our society might not be at war but the pain of being displaced is the same.

Economic survival is also a fundamental right, more so for the invisible workforce that was such a vital contributor to it. The typical forced migrant breadwinner must find a good job, and quickly, to mitigate his or her family’s plight, and to overcome the poverty, uncertainty, and humiliation. At the same time, new investments occur too slowly or are deterred by a fragile investment climate or by economic instability, which is made even worse by a large inflow of migrants. The lethal effects corona virus on top of this job market mismatch is already severe and might become extreme and persistent. Economic revival being the only hope is the difficult need of the hour.

Since this is an ongoing transition, even when the lockdown opens, there will be migrants; stranded at their place of work, still moving on roads towards home or at their home towns, thus labour shortages will continue and would in turn threaten industries dependent on migrants, particularly agriculture where the crop seasons wait for none. There is also a feel that large distance migration may reduce, as people will be averse on getting stuck in far off places. This will severely impact the revival of the businesses, something we are counting on to offset the crisis. Breaking these circular (or cyclic) dependencies is where the national political will comes into play when at the cost of financial prudence, the government will have to bail out businesses and put money back into the hands of people and encourage spending instead of tilting towards regressive taxation policies.

And when you take focus on the individual who is migrating with his family or alone, maybe on a flight from Gulf or on a train from Mumbai or just walking on a highway in UP, the only thing that matters is reaching home safe. The other battles seem distant as the journey converges all socio-economic realms and becomes a humanitarian crisis. This is not something new to us, as migrant labour has seasonally been moving back home during holiday or harvesting times but it was hit by mobility lockdowns. The challenge now is to avoid human loss from this unprecedented and unplanned displacement as well as the disconcerting virus. The more we are able to manage this efficiently, the smaller would be the add-on crisis this movement of humanity brings.

This maybe a big catastrophe for us all, but drawing on ethnographies of poor migrants, there is often a ‘constant prospect’ of crisis woven into their social fabric in contemporary times. When you are neither where you are supposed to be nor where you want to be, the place has no meaning and the streets have no names. When Ralph Waldo Emerson said “Its the not the Destination, It's the journey,” he surely did not have migrants in mind.

Unforgiven 2

Will we ever know where the corona virus came from? Maybe only after it is convenient to be told or someone benefits from it. But we all know the life and livelihood costs of COVID-19 and the graphs that keep showing mirages. The first unforgiven was the spread of this disease through out the world. Its start from China, its race all over the globe and our fear of how long it would speed till the checkered flag. The virus killed humans, brought trade to knees and purged the ‘social’ trait from the ‘social animal’. History will not be kind to the origins of the virus, even if they plan to write it.

After Y2K, the end of the world had become a cliché. But, nothing is a cliché when it's happening to you. We are all swimming in the effects of the virus; collecting evidence has gotten old a few thousand deaths ago. The hope now is to get out of homes and reclaim the world. A few countries have started the opening up and all others are thinking about doing it soon. We too, have released the ‘graduated withdrawal of restrictions’ plan and are praying that the learning curve would be soft on us.

Experts fear that lifting those restrictions could start the process all over again. Since the movement of people caused the spread and the lockdowns merely delayed the peak, their logic appears sound. The second wave looks like the Judgment Day we have delayed, but is inevitable. Emotions aside, resilience and greatness of nations are as good as antibiotics and as we stand today, there is neither a potent vaccine nor an effective cure. The virus is not going anywhere. There are two main ways the virus can make a resurgence as residents emerge from their homes, return to work, take their children to school, and go shopping. First, a small number of residents who were under lockdown could still have the virus when restrictions lift but not know they're sick. Those people could then spread it, starting a new wave of infections. Second, international travellers could bring the virus back into the country and a churn of all this in the domestic sector will cause huge problems of containment till the antidote comes to rescue.

In a noisy democracy like ours, prudence hints towards self-empowerment and care over and above institutionalised programs. Freedom will mean discipline, our own actions of distancing, wearing masks, diligent hygiene and avoidance of the unnecessary will need to become muscle memory with even more added care towards the young and the old. But then these are just words, all of this went for a toss as the liquor vends opened up yesterday. Hysteria aside, people ignored all heed of self-protection advisories as if the wise Obi-Wan Kenobi himself gave them deflector shields when he said “May The 4^th Be With You” (or something like that). Lessons from this opening, compounded by infection results in a few days, might make any reopening a hard choice and a very slow eventuality.

We have been suffering the worst from the first sin and it should be a crime to throw away the advantages of relaxed restrictions, but it surely will be cruel to contribute to the second wave. It's a rare chance given to us and taking the Blue Pill is not an option. Prioritise life. Take it slow.

PS: Credits to Metallica, Max Payne, Terminator, Star Wars, Churchill and Morpheus.

Creating Hope

40 plus days of social distancing, lock down, isolation, pay cuts, job uncertainty and a continuous bombardment of bad news has made people anxious, to say the least, during this COVID crisis. As we start “Lockdown Season-3”, the talks of relaxation of restrictions, progress in formulation of a vaccine and areas being declared green and orange from red, have given some rays of hope to the masses. It is being felt that better times are round the corner.

Hope is a very strong emotion. It’s link to our survival instinct makes hope an intangible imperative for us flourishing as a race. Every prognosis brings out how this current crunch will change our normal, forcing changes in habits, expectations and recalibrating our individual ecosystems. But this prediction game is easy as the analysts keep coming up with broadband predictions covering all conceivable options and just waiting to say, “I told you so”. However, life being analog has to be lived till the new normal becomes normal.

This transition thus becomes the phase where neither possibility nor probability offers comfort as we sometimes mistake aggressive actions for effective actions. Engaging a large population in such times, while balancing the social and economic variables of individuals, collectives and societies, presents problems beyond the realm of mathematical statistics. For people, life is about value. During adversity, people start attaching more value to the innate while, trying their best to hold on to the notion of life they had. Yet, the beauty of humans is, that they themselves are the most vital link in the entire value chain. Thus, engaging and leveraging this human infinity becomes pivot in defining the strength of our resilience.

There is no recommended ratio of words vs actions that offers balance to leadership. However, plans advertised without the backup of capacity reduce Statesmanship to Statement-ship, eroding faith and seeding fear. While we push through this pandemic, assurances are being sought by one and all. We all want to be told what is being done and what is likely to happen, as it enables us to graduate from symbolic interactionism to constructivism, thus cognitively designing our reality. A simple example would be the headlines, “Lockdown Extended for Two Weeks” versus “Graduated Relaxation of Restrictions Announced.” Both are just word plays on how the next two weeks will be tackled by the government, but the hint of uncertainty against a feel of relief is what makes the two statements vastly different as planning triggers.

Crisis evolution is by large, binary in nature: evolve or perish. As the current situation starts making more sense, it is evident that we need to leverage our strengths and enhance capacities else the hanging fruit will be plucked by someone else who is more ready and flexible. More than 50 major businesses have, till now, decided to ditch China and relocate, but they are mostly moving to other South East Asian countries like Vietnam instead of India and with our own manufacturing still under lockdown, European retailers are threatening to shift orders to the Chinese manufacturers if the Indian factories do not deliver in time.To top this off is the crash in our domestic demand that has made restarting of manufacturing units uncertain, apart from difficult, due to broken supply chains and internally displaced labour.

Feel-good information may be a part in the creation of hope, but excessive symbolism sometimes indicates bankruptcy of ideas. People will like to hear and read about how the huge logistics of the nation rebooting will be tackled, how the markets will be opened, how the flights and trains will resume and once that happens how will the second wave of infections be managed. Unfortunately, all these being politically difficult decisions and the umbrella awareness being fluid in nature, incremental decision-making and addendums are the only realistic bet.

Despite the many limitations, there are many emerging opportunities that we can take and all is not lost. Oil being cheaper, we can try and stock up. With companies having tremendous tech and skill resources threatened due to the global crash (eg Bombardier), we can push stakes in a few to buy the next gen solutions for our own self, at least. People being confined to houses, improvement of existing infrastructure can be attempted which would have otherwise caused great discomfort and warehousing of grains can be optimised for reducing the unforgivable wastage caused by rains. Just a few of the vast canvas of examples up for grabs.

Unfortunately, at the same time, cross border terrorism and its costs have also continued as the western neighbor leases the future of its citizens to Yuan. I compare this insurgency with the COVID pandemic because they both continue to exist today and every pre-mature celebration has ended up with a sad twist leaving the suffering to continue. Fighting ideology with bullets, our triumph over the terrorists has remained occasional and temporary, but our inability to create a secure space has become permanent. We might seek gratification with feel-good news but what we truly need is actual effort and balanced wisdom. Let us use our human strive as a catalyst for change instead of fodder for fire.

Corona Blues

A Lot has been written and discussed on the mortality and economic effect of the Corona Virus. While these aspects are the statistical top of the ‘impact list’, murmurs of the psychological / mental health issues have started to creep up and demand attention. The sparse literature available on the mental health consequences of epidemics relates more to the sequelae of the disease itself than to the aftermath of life in social distancing like scenarios. However, large-scale disasters, whether traumatic (insurgencies), natural (earthquakes), or environmental (severe air pollution), are almost always accompanied by increases in depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), substance use disorder and a broad range of other mental and behavioural issues.

In the context of the COVID-19, acceptance is forming around the fact that this is just the beginning and it appears likely that there will be a major increase in the mental health shock. Medical journals are on it, splicing details to offer technical addendums in all specialties engaged in combating the virus. But for the uninitiated, like me, science has always been a catalog of nature, with maths thrown in to ensure that not many understand it. This time, while one may not understand the change, we can surely feel it.

The most severe impact is obviously from direct personal suffering. Getting infected is a slide down the rabbit hole with the fear of the unknown paralysing life. Recoveries remain the ray of hope but experiences of the many who got back are yet to be analysed. Despite alarming numbers, the biggest share relates to the bulk of humanity confined to homes. Lockdowns have proved to be the only preventive option working as of now and have warranted people to drop all notions of routine and stick to a lifestyle never considered normal.

Most of us at home, after overcoming the initial hysteria of panic buying, positively comprehended the call to stay indoors. As time progressed, the bliss of solitude, clean air and togetherness transformed into an uneasy reaction of habit withdrawals. Aspects considered a given like eating out, travel and socialising converted into yearnings, the suppression of which gave rise to a newer emotional self. There is some data on the psychological impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) on patients and health-care workers, but not much is known about the long-term mental health effects on ordinary citizens. Looking around, age related issues come to light.

For children and adolescents, such closures mean a lack of access to the resources and interactions they usually had through schools and now when schools are closed, they have lost a predictable anchor in life. College and university students are stressed about clustered hostel life and cancellation of anticipated events such as exchange studies and graduation ceremonies. Some even lost their part-time jobs as local businesses closed. Students in their final year are anxious about the job market and the financial burden of student loans. Across the bridge, breadwinners know well that ‘uncertainty’ is the softest word to describe the prevailing job market and the old retirees not only worry about health care but also the devaluation of their savings in the commercial market.  Now imagine, a combination of the above group, cooped inside a home, for a prolonged duration. Even the most resilient will show vulnerability, sooner of later.

Populations grouped as nations, expect their leadership and governance structures to alleviate them out of such crisis. Members of this governance combine like the state administration, police, doctors, health workers, conservancy staff, military etc thus transform into a duality of soldiering national service as well as being normal family members with same issues like all other citizens. Everyday, when a country as large and diverse as ours functions and survives, it is these elements of the nation’s steel frame that go out and ensure we get to fight another day.

The role of communication and information flow is huge in manoeuvring thought processes in such times. Inter personal communication primarily tends to focus on sharing of anxieties or the pretend of being ok. People seek hope and search for similarity of experiences from others to assume belongingness to common emotional groups. The media, despite getting an increased time-share from people’s lives, remains bound to corporation rules with news genre continuously bombarding sad numbers and failures and entertainment media catering to the doomsday theme of programming. You can check any news channel and it will have the omnipresent ticker of COVID affected and deaths.  Netflix will have Contagion trending and Whatsapp shares will have a serious helping of videos promoting gloom. 

As governments race to contain the corona virus, it is important to realise actions the society can take to mitigate the behavioural health impact of the pandemic and economic crisis. For every rupee spent on engaging and healing common mental disorders, a ten rupee return can be realised as improved health and productivity. Common sense initiatives like strengthening community prevention, integrating behavioural and physical health services and addressing unemployment and income disparities are the simplest ways forward to initiate and accelerate efforts towards reducing long-term psychosocial risks. A vital step here would be to leverage data and technology as predictive analytics to channelise prevention along with the use of AI and digital platforms (tele medicines & digital therapeutics) for connecting consumers seamlessly to evidence and measurement based care.

Every time I sat to blog this topic, the flow went through the rigours of reality and how we could engage it with the little we know. But the never-say-die inside, made me conclude the belief that our resilience has always been bigger than our threats. It is vital that communities seeking a “new normal” draw from their inherent strength and compassion to recognise, heal, and support those experiencing this human toll. As Mark Watney said in ‘The Martian’, There is no magic wand; all we can do is get to work.  You solve one problem and you solve the next one and then the next. And if you solve enough problems, you get to come home.

Can’t give up. Lets win.

Plan B

It is strange today that the world economies are crashing because people are only buying essentials. It is a complex matrix of consumerism, greed & diminishing returns within the Maslow’s hierarchies that makes people yearn for things, all the way from basic to luxury to outlandish. Economic studies lay out a usual trajectory for developing nations. First they make shoes, then steel. Then they move into cars, computers and cellphones. Eventually the most advanced economies tackle semiconductors and automation. As they climb up the manufacturing ladder, they abandon some cheaper goods along the way. That is what the United States, Japan and South Korea did.

The Industrial Revolution was one of the most important socioeconomic events in human history, perhaps as significant as the discovery of fire. Before that, humanity across all continents had lived essentially at a subsistence level, stagnating in the so-called Malthusian trap (Economic growth leading to increase in population leading to stagnation). The emergence of scientific supply-chains, modularity of container designs and global interconnectivity through the net, clustered economic activities in the places, which optimised gains. Places got branded as manufacturing hubs, financial hubs etc.

 As developed nations text-booked their policies & looked to offset low-end manufacturing, many countries lapped up orders. But China, went a step ahead and lapped up ecosystems. China’s means aside, the ends created a juggernaut that created rooted dependencies of economic convenience, nearly bordering on addiction. It became the one stop shop for any and every product and with prices that made capitalism proud. Then as the world’s factory, the middle kingdom vector summed its surpluses towards its version of society. The phrase, ‘everybody wants to rule the world’ is acceptable only as a song (Tears for Fears-1985). When someone conquers monopoly, human psychology pushes back.

The world has slowly but surely started seeing Trojans in the large-scale proliferations by China. Despite short term prudence, long lasting economic effects, political backlashes and the human cost of yet another modern day imperialist, has affected a convergence of ideals questioning the Xi Dynasty’s approach of bartering money for freedom. Stories of the Belt & Road Initiative as a debt trap, racialism against Africans, expansionist policies in South China Sea and the Covidisation of all other relationships, has left China with many trading partners but a few trusting friends.

Coming back home, India has been in pursuit of uplifting its masses towards benefits of the modern day world, but on a different path. A noisy society, the nation has been upholding of disagreements, free journalism, democracy and the cultural policy of taking everyone along. This may be slow, but is more in natural harmony with itself and others. I would not call it soft power, as it is more a civilizational attribute of mutual coexistence and balance.

Japan recently committed $2 Billion to relocate its industries from China. US & European business are seeking alternatives and other countries have been evaluating the cost of betrayal with defective testing kits and ineffective PPEs supplied by Beijing. With the world on a lookout for avenues, we have the initial bits to aspire confidence and welcome them, but the scale and speed expected would be the challenge that defines what we become. Opportunities cannot be taken as excuses; consumers are already exposed to quality and prices. Whatever the world offsets to us will come mapped with expectations and the next best option available will be a strong competition.

But we can’t become China, that would be a ridiculous plan. Plus the reasons why China is ‘Chinese’ like currency manipulations, dumping, environmental disregard, free-will suppression etc actually subsidises reality to give us the “China price”. As economies plan to shift away from this dependence, the “India price” appears to be as acceptable. 

For India, it will be political statesmanship and not electoral sloganeering that is needed to jump start the country away from the gloom. Investments towards future-prudence and not audit-prudence are needed to support the industrial backbone in gearing up for deliverance. Industrial ventures need to own the patriotism of nation building while executing businesses and India specific innovations will need to be cultured and embedded in making the best practices.

The world had plans, the systems were stabilising and anticipating growth on modelled trajectories, before the current crisis hit. Whether the world changes its existence habits and to what extent, will be decided by the duration and effects of the corona virus. It has nudged many to reconsider putting all eggs in one basket and that too one with high rewards but fatal risks. The plan needs to change.

What is a Plan without a Plan-‘B’.

COVID Rubicon

Biological Warfare is the use of biological toxins or infectious agents such as bacteria and viruses with the intent to kill or incapacitate humans, animals or plants as an act of war. However, as a tactical weapon for military use, a significant problem with a biological weapon attack is that it would take days to be effective, and therefore might not immediately stop an opposing force. But use of the same in a strategic offensive role, preemptive strikes, area denial and even sub-conventional bio terrorism is a well-recorded contingency.

So, is COVID-19 a form of Biological Weapon? While in its present configuration it has displayed high infectivity, high virulence and an efficient delivery system (human population), the problem is a lack of control on the flow of infection that could backfire and harm the military on the offensive, perhaps having even worse effects than on the target. So with the global impact on lives & livelihood, including on the country of origin, I will leave the burden of proof, on its military impact in the current form, to the experts.

But this case does bring the question that, are nations and militaries ready for Bio Warfare in view of the effects being seen in this COVID pandemic?

Traditionally, the business of war has been oriented towards warfare that brought impact, fulfilled political aims, stirred patriotic approval and gave plausible deniability for collateral damages. Nations have anticipated and militaries have prepared, primarily, for kinetic operations. This, despite the acknowledgement of NBC, cyber, economic and asymmetric threats, is historically and statistically justified. But now that we have crossed the COVID Rubicon, ignorance cannot be an excuse.

In the Indian context, the usual enemies have either posed conventional threats or promoted insurgencies. Bio warfare, though known, has been appreciated as a national threat instead of a military one. While we have a well-developed biotechnology infrastructure that includes numerous pharma production facilities and labs as well as qualified scientists, the infrastructure required for containing, isolating, treating and decontaminating had to be modified from the existing structures.

The military, as a frontline agency of response, prioritises ‘survivability’ as a precondition for effective engagement. Well-drilled battle procedures can catalyse the delivery of expertise existing as a national pool and should remain, as the vital take away in using military might in such crisis. Defensive bio warfare operations and medical counter-measures are an inescapable convergence in this field and their success largely depends on effective surveillance. We also need to create a unified response including the articulation that as per our nuclear doctrine a bio-war attack on India is a WMD attack.

Dense population, deprived sanitation facilities along with congenial climatic conditions make India vulnerable for the spread of infectious diseases caused by biological agents. Besides being lethal, the psychological impact of bioweapons is equally damaging and long lasting. The impact includes horror, panic, fear of the invisible, anger towards government, suspicion, social isolation, demoralisation and loss of faith in social institutions. So, while we tackle the current situation, concurrent planning and capacity building needs to be done to mitigate the middle and long-term impact.

Events like this are evolutionary landmarks, and in evolution, the prepared survive and the specialists thrive. Bio warfare threats need to be tackled by an organisation of multi-disciplinary experts including, biologists, doctors, administrators, lawmakers & military, at the apex level. Traditional hierarchies, procedures and structures will need flexible modulation to suit requirements. Both planning and executing agencies will have to be self aware and self-learning as the bio-agent will be the action determinant and not the reactive forces.

The best time to re-define our notion of security and develop capacities was ten years ago. The second best is now.