Crimea River

China is the latest Honours Subject from the University of Social Media. The recent standoff reported from Ladakh and similar incidents in Sikkim etc seem to have taken some attention away from the overwhelming corona issue. However, a major realisation has occurred that, ‘boredom’ is a strong emotion. Barely a few months into the COVID crisis, with loss of lives and livelihood on the rise, we already have a bored Pakistan pushing in terrorists, while seeking loans and China playing the intimidation game at third party borders; India – Tibet and India - Nepal. While globally, Venezuela’s collapse, Hong Kong protests and the Taliban agreement also deserves focused attention, our immediate neighbourhood has plenty to fill our hands.

 

Papers, TV and the net is full of what allegedly happened, what might be happening, backgrounders, China’s Theatre Commands, Theaterisation of Indian forces and who said what. Serious operational matter for some, but Home Theatre for most. Disputes below a threshold, as an external policy have been a favourite amongst imbalanced relationships. Economic tinkering, Election meddling or territory slicing, the world has been seeing it all. Callously unconcerned, as long as it was someone else’s problem.

 

Annexation of land is not new. Despite being a taboo in recent international politics, territorial assertions have been happening. And while they do cause much heartburns and human plight, wars also have not brought decisive results for the same, except maybe the Falklands War. We still have the Line of Control with Pakistan after many wars. Even creation of Bangladesh and an all out defeat of Pakistan, did not lead to the integration of Jammu & Kashmir with Pakistan occupied J&K and Gilgit Baltistan, while Shaksgam Valley & Aksai Chin remained with China adding on to the unsettled borders of the Heaven on Earth.

To be clear, Borders have shifted throughout history and there will always be groups that, for ethnic or religious reasons, feel they are stranded in the wrong country. But allowing a new nation such as East Timor or South Sudan to break free, usually through a negotiated and internationally recognised referendum, is very different from allowing an existing nation to forcibly seize part of a neighbour’s territory. China has long threatened to militarily integrate Taiwan, Israel vs Palestine has been a continuous struggle but Crimea is the example that comes to mind when annexation is spoken of. Be it reasons of region, religion or access to the Black Sea, Crimea is now added to the list of disputed territories that everyone knows and cant do much about. These regions eventually harmonise to an equilibrium that enables life to go on with the notion of choice remaining an illusion created by the haves for the have-nots.

 

Every time there is a standoff with PLA in our northern borders, it is dealt with. How it gets reported, is another story. It is difficult to pin the reason or blame for that, as when the news is not raising patriotic fervour on the military’s work it is giving out analysis on how the budgets should be slashed for audit prudence, leaving both aspects reduced to symbolism for prime time. This gives little space to summarise simple facts:- We have threats on the borders. We need to contain them in the present and we need to build credible & effective deterrence for the future. Foreign policy can be based on intentions, but defence policy can only be based on capability.

 

Game of political optics aside, India today is not a push over. If this is a retribution for reducing imports, asking WHO did what, calling out OBOR a money trap and supporting countries troubled by Chinese imperialistic designs, then, it must be realised that, isolated military misadventures in Ladakh wont change the exposed public face of the Middle Kingdom. Yes, there are ways that China can hurt us, but there are also ways for us to act where China won’t like it. What and how much to do is best left to the experts on the ground.

 

Thing that baffles the most is, what does China get from all this? Bad relations with most neighbours, further worsening of international image, a synonym of everything cheap to buy but expensive to own and a friendless global playground. On the Indian side as well, the Himalayas are a natural watershed and Tibet a beyond economical pursuit. None of the southern neighbours have ever threatened the British drawn limits. It has always been the Chinese who have continued to nurture disputed areas, as if looking for excuses for disputes. Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal and India, all have suffered the imposed superiority of Chinese through military incursions, leaving only Pakistan that has traded partial sovereignty for border peace while assuming enemy of my enemy is a friend.

 

As an aspiring superpower, China could have done better by leveraging its civilisation, culture and diversity towards a more symbiotic ecosystem with its neighbours and global partners. Taking a path of human inclusivity and mutual benefits for spreading the soft power of their oriental way of life and added to this its industrial powerhouse would have ushered a different century for the world, possibly bereft of a lot of infructuous exchanges.

 

Towards Ladakh or Sikkim, favourable weather incursions may be an effective ploy to temporarily channelize opinion, but it can’t serve any long-term gain. The second biggest standing armed forces won’t wither away like some Guangzhou Counterfeit Nike and the colder it gets, the harder it will be for the dragon to breathe fire. The buildup might cause political entropy here but that is only because a democracy affords that to its people. Being non-existent back in China, out of fear of the nature of free will, the people there don’t get to decide who will be their country’s enemies or friends.

 

Sometimes we are just collaterals in our wars against ourselves. Snatching away doesn’t work with kids and toys or with men and territory. History is not destiny and rules of Crimea don’t apply to  the Himalayas. If you are sad that the world does not take you well, change yourself. From being a poor and weak country that not many liked, you are now a rich and strong country that not many like. Fighting us won’t change that. Cry Me a River.