Plan B

It is strange today that the world economies are crashing because people are only buying essentials. It is a complex matrix of consumerism, greed & diminishing returns within the Maslow’s hierarchies that makes people yearn for things, all the way from basic to luxury to outlandish. Economic studies lay out a usual trajectory for developing nations. First they make shoes, then steel. Then they move into cars, computers and cellphones. Eventually the most advanced economies tackle semiconductors and automation. As they climb up the manufacturing ladder, they abandon some cheaper goods along the way. That is what the United States, Japan and South Korea did.

The Industrial Revolution was one of the most important socioeconomic events in human history, perhaps as significant as the discovery of fire. Before that, humanity across all continents had lived essentially at a subsistence level, stagnating in the so-called Malthusian trap (Economic growth leading to increase in population leading to stagnation). The emergence of scientific supply-chains, modularity of container designs and global interconnectivity through the net, clustered economic activities in the places, which optimised gains. Places got branded as manufacturing hubs, financial hubs etc.

 As developed nations text-booked their policies & looked to offset low-end manufacturing, many countries lapped up orders. But China, went a step ahead and lapped up ecosystems. China’s means aside, the ends created a juggernaut that created rooted dependencies of economic convenience, nearly bordering on addiction. It became the one stop shop for any and every product and with prices that made capitalism proud. Then as the world’s factory, the middle kingdom vector summed its surpluses towards its version of society. The phrase, ‘everybody wants to rule the world’ is acceptable only as a song (Tears for Fears-1985). When someone conquers monopoly, human psychology pushes back.

The world has slowly but surely started seeing Trojans in the large-scale proliferations by China. Despite short term prudence, long lasting economic effects, political backlashes and the human cost of yet another modern day imperialist, has affected a convergence of ideals questioning the Xi Dynasty’s approach of bartering money for freedom. Stories of the Belt & Road Initiative as a debt trap, racialism against Africans, expansionist policies in South China Sea and the Covidisation of all other relationships, has left China with many trading partners but a few trusting friends.

Coming back home, India has been in pursuit of uplifting its masses towards benefits of the modern day world, but on a different path. A noisy society, the nation has been upholding of disagreements, free journalism, democracy and the cultural policy of taking everyone along. This may be slow, but is more in natural harmony with itself and others. I would not call it soft power, as it is more a civilizational attribute of mutual coexistence and balance.

Japan recently committed $2 Billion to relocate its industries from China. US & European business are seeking alternatives and other countries have been evaluating the cost of betrayal with defective testing kits and ineffective PPEs supplied by Beijing. With the world on a lookout for avenues, we have the initial bits to aspire confidence and welcome them, but the scale and speed expected would be the challenge that defines what we become. Opportunities cannot be taken as excuses; consumers are already exposed to quality and prices. Whatever the world offsets to us will come mapped with expectations and the next best option available will be a strong competition.

But we can’t become China, that would be a ridiculous plan. Plus the reasons why China is ‘Chinese’ like currency manipulations, dumping, environmental disregard, free-will suppression etc actually subsidises reality to give us the “China price”. As economies plan to shift away from this dependence, the “India price” appears to be as acceptable. 

For India, it will be political statesmanship and not electoral sloganeering that is needed to jump start the country away from the gloom. Investments towards future-prudence and not audit-prudence are needed to support the industrial backbone in gearing up for deliverance. Industrial ventures need to own the patriotism of nation building while executing businesses and India specific innovations will need to be cultured and embedded in making the best practices.

The world had plans, the systems were stabilising and anticipating growth on modelled trajectories, before the current crisis hit. Whether the world changes its existence habits and to what extent, will be decided by the duration and effects of the corona virus. It has nudged many to reconsider putting all eggs in one basket and that too one with high rewards but fatal risks. The plan needs to change.

What is a Plan without a Plan-‘B’.