COVID Rubicon

Biological Warfare is the use of biological toxins or infectious agents such as bacteria and viruses with the intent to kill or incapacitate humans, animals or plants as an act of war. However, as a tactical weapon for military use, a significant problem with a biological weapon attack is that it would take days to be effective, and therefore might not immediately stop an opposing force. But use of the same in a strategic offensive role, preemptive strikes, area denial and even sub-conventional bio terrorism is a well-recorded contingency.

So, is COVID-19 a form of Biological Weapon? While in its present configuration it has displayed high infectivity, high virulence and an efficient delivery system (human population), the problem is a lack of control on the flow of infection that could backfire and harm the military on the offensive, perhaps having even worse effects than on the target. So with the global impact on lives & livelihood, including on the country of origin, I will leave the burden of proof, on its military impact in the current form, to the experts.

But this case does bring the question that, are nations and militaries ready for Bio Warfare in view of the effects being seen in this COVID pandemic?

Traditionally, the business of war has been oriented towards warfare that brought impact, fulfilled political aims, stirred patriotic approval and gave plausible deniability for collateral damages. Nations have anticipated and militaries have prepared, primarily, for kinetic operations. This, despite the acknowledgement of NBC, cyber, economic and asymmetric threats, is historically and statistically justified. But now that we have crossed the COVID Rubicon, ignorance cannot be an excuse.

In the Indian context, the usual enemies have either posed conventional threats or promoted insurgencies. Bio warfare, though known, has been appreciated as a national threat instead of a military one. While we have a well-developed biotechnology infrastructure that includes numerous pharma production facilities and labs as well as qualified scientists, the infrastructure required for containing, isolating, treating and decontaminating had to be modified from the existing structures.

The military, as a frontline agency of response, prioritises ‘survivability’ as a precondition for effective engagement. Well-drilled battle procedures can catalyse the delivery of expertise existing as a national pool and should remain, as the vital take away in using military might in such crisis. Defensive bio warfare operations and medical counter-measures are an inescapable convergence in this field and their success largely depends on effective surveillance. We also need to create a unified response including the articulation that as per our nuclear doctrine a bio-war attack on India is a WMD attack.

Dense population, deprived sanitation facilities along with congenial climatic conditions make India vulnerable for the spread of infectious diseases caused by biological agents. Besides being lethal, the psychological impact of bioweapons is equally damaging and long lasting. The impact includes horror, panic, fear of the invisible, anger towards government, suspicion, social isolation, demoralisation and loss of faith in social institutions. So, while we tackle the current situation, concurrent planning and capacity building needs to be done to mitigate the middle and long-term impact.

Events like this are evolutionary landmarks, and in evolution, the prepared survive and the specialists thrive. Bio warfare threats need to be tackled by an organisation of multi-disciplinary experts including, biologists, doctors, administrators, lawmakers & military, at the apex level. Traditional hierarchies, procedures and structures will need flexible modulation to suit requirements. Both planning and executing agencies will have to be self aware and self-learning as the bio-agent will be the action determinant and not the reactive forces.

The best time to re-define our notion of security and develop capacities was ten years ago. The second best is now.