Different take on Kashmir

    A very broad understanding of Relativity is that Point of View depends on Point of Viewing. It is more complicated than that, but it does explain how we interpret things.

    Travelling to Kashmir for work, was always normal and it felt the same this time. The trip was planned in detail, the daily schedule was aligned, contingencies were appreciated and I collected as much data as I could on the intended places of visit & had questions ready. Out on the first flight of the day, the window seat too supported the old routine of terrain analysis & searching for familiar areas from above. Change hit while traversing the Srinagar terminal since now, as someone out of uniform, appreciation of normalcy took centre stage. I had last flown out of SXR in 2016 and security at the airport was more than at any other place. This time, the place still felt secure, yet the security was not visible. 

    On the drive to the city, one saw new cafes, retail outlets, malls & of course, traffic. Suddenly the comparison with other state capitals that I had recently visited brought out the positives of development being afforded to citizens. Though tagged along were the issues of rapid urbanization, guess that is universal.

    Day 1 afternoon the agenda was visiting a business site in Badgam about 25 km away. I last remembered the place as a semi-rural community which we had crossed in a heavily armed convoy. This time, a newly launched store was giving people the opportunity of experiencing organized retail. Out of habit, work started with a structured set of briefings loaded with questions. As we progressed from the ground to the second floor & professional matters covered, the focus shifted to digging deeper into the feel of the store. I am still learning the trade, but I strongly feel that retail is more about people than merchandise. 

    The people echoed a sense of pride & ownership. They were all keen to learn. The team was cohesive & discussions were targeted at becoming better. Dashboards aside, it was evident that the place was in good hands. The best proof came from customers I saw, who came with curious eyes & checked out with bags of clothes. This was not what I had seen in the last work visit to Kashmir & certainly very different from what was read in mainstream media. 

    Back in the room, the night was spent answering emails & questioning my belief system. Was Kashmir back to normal? What is normal? Are a few hours of learning this time enough to negate a few years of learning last time?

    Day 2 started with breakfast surrounded by Gujarati tourists whose volume was directly proportional to their excitement of feeling cold. It was too early for snow, but Jignes bhai (name changed) was optimistic about Pahalgam and the smiles on the family were telling.

    An early start for Anantnag took us through the fog at Pampore. The highway showed exits to places like Tral & Pulwama which were always associated with violence. Again, the drive felt safe but security was hardly visible. 

    The workplace at Anantnag was again reassuring as the scope for improvement was matched by the willingness for improvement. After a few hours of thrashing processes, the discussion over tea, loaded with milk & sugar (could not hurt the intent of hospitality so just drank it) shifted towards the benefits of more, better-paying jobs that were coming into the valley. Organized businesses were slowly becoming a career option as the elimination of 'Bandhs' meant that people could work & get paid throughout the year. A luxury that was only available to government employees earlier. 

    It made a special impact when people discussed the security forces without realizing my past in uniform. Two statements stood out; first, a store owner commented that sales to uniformed persons are a substantial part of his turnover and second the hotel guard, who was from Uri, answering as to why there is no security force on the streets said." How can it be normal, if it doesn't look normal?"

    I was even more comfortable on the ride back to the airport with the driver playing Punjabi rap numbers. The saffron plantations & effect of autumn on Chinar trees did make for good sights but as I took off from Kashmir, the question lingered, is 'normal' back?

    Once home, I searched for recent analyses on Kashmir. Political, Economic, Military & Social. While they all made sense, their vector sum did not align with the reality I saw on the ground. That is the beauty of truth, it does not need to make sense. People may define their own 'normal', but if I just take the set of people of Kashmir that I met, the aspirational Kashmiri is seeking his/her version of Kashmir. For years they have borne the social costs of economic stagnation & the economic costs of social stagnation. Upliftment now is a human right. 

    Listening to people discuss growth possibilities in Bandipore, Kupwara & Baramulla was very heartening. In my last experience, just crossing these areas required reconnaissance & planning. After years of turmoil, someone managing the affairs is doing the right things as the major event in the city was an investor summit instead of a procession or call for a strike at Lal Chowk.

    One may question whether opening organized retail is more important than say a hospital or a school, but where we stand as a nation, all of the above need parallel processing. The space program needs to co-exist with the food distribution to the poor. 

    I saw a Kashmir that is breaking the chains of an uncomfortable past. It is aspirational. It does not want to do the same things that were done earlier and it is ready to take control. This time the feel of Kashmir was different. What impressed me more than the beauty of the place was the determination of this generation to build a better future.

Restarting Bhutan: The Policy Factor

 

    The South Asian region is seeing nations tripping over poor economic decisions made over the past few years. In the Indian neighbourhood, Pakistan is living from bailout to bailout, Sri Lanka is in major turmoil, Bangladesh fears the worst, Nepal is showing cracks & Afghanistan has not had a chance to even look at the economy. Most of these countries have faltered by applying policies that have worked in other countries without (or with) realizing the extreme differences in fiscal realities. As a common factor, Pakistan & Sri Lanka have gone down the Chinese debt trap and Bangladesh & Nepal are on a similar path. The abode of peace, Bhutan was seen as the wise one, biting only as much as it could and pursuing happiness. But of late it has been taking decisions that might put its people on the path of discomfort.

    The Bhutanese economy is largely dependent on Hydropower & Tourism. Hydropower plants financed by India export electricity back to the power-hungry neighbour and generate vital cash flow. Add to this large Indian assistance money & defence support create a major chunk of Bhutan’s money bucket. The country has also been prudent in spending this wealth in ways that protect ecological & economical needs, however, it is walking a tight rope in trying to balance sustainable development & aspiration of people who seek a better life.

    Two years of COVID were met by a predictable government response, isolation. In absence of vital medical facilities & complete dependence on vaccine supplies led to people being made to confine in their communities. This had a major impact on small businesses & trade which was the mainstay of the growing middle class. Even when the world eased lockdowns, Bhutan kept the people confined & only opened institutional trade enabling the government to sustain the population. So, while the numbers showed healthy economic activity, the benefits were only doled out as Kidu. The simplest lay interpretation of kidu is that, in the Bhutanese system, the King personally takes care of the well-being of the people. It is a unique and humane social security system to ensure necessities and livelihood as well as any other aspect of a Bhutanese citizen's life when necessary. The greatness of the gesture is accepted, however, this support while sustaining is not a tool for development.

    A total absence of tourists meant that no hotels, taxis & related businesses had any income. Most connections were lost, skilled manpower reverse-migrated & infrastructure suffered decay of disuse. Small traders who used to import goods from the land ports of Phuentsholing in the South West & Samdrup Jonkar in the South East had to scale down due to reduced demand & difficulty in sourcing. One of the biggest strengths of Indo-Bhutan trade was always the people-to-people relations that integrated commercial lines in both countries & facilitated people-driven growth & exchanges. Economic hubs of Siliguri & Guwahati were always social melting pots hosting mutually beneficial convergence.

    The decline in COVID threat came as good news to people who had prayed for the restoration of normalcy. However, recent policies announced by the Bhutanese government hint at an inclination towards the proclamation of openness with retention of control. The free movement of people across the borders, up to a certain distance for Indians in Bhutan & unrestricted for Bhutanese in India is being changed. Indians can now only venture inside this limited area for 24 hours & will need to undergo certain processing. This limits the flow of casual tourists, labour, traders & others who may not have the luxury of paying for the processes. While India has not given the reciprocal web for the Bhutanese, locals on the Indian side feel that their generous hospitality is being replied to with paper policy tilting the deep relations of equality cherished by people from both sides.

    In search of high-value-low-volume tourism, Bhutan has announced an increased visitor fee for all tourists. This again will end up affecting the budget traveller & the affordable hotel businesses in Bhutan. While Bhutan may assume a larger per-person spend from the tourists, the high-end tourist infrastructure is very limited & does not match the service standards offered in a similar process, globally.

    These two decisions appear to be influenced by similar policies in other nations. Japan has a "sayonara tax". The 1,000 Yen ($9.25) fee, is paid by international visitors as they leave the country. This is reasonable as tourists on average get the value for money in return. Bhutan charging about $200 each from international tourists & Rs 1200 for Indian tourists may end up stunting its own travel industry. While the bigger players & government may see larger revenue, it is the smaller businesses that will end up suffering. Similarly, the travel restrictions are most likely to create a situation of reduced interactions. This is strange as for decades it was this free cultural exchange that created the unique social blend of Bhutan.

    These decisions have an eerie similarity with actions in the neighbourhood. Sri Lanka had suddenly decided that they will go pure organic farming without giving time for the logistics chain & related ecosystem to develop. Unfortunately, it was the people in the lowest part of the pyramid who suffered and had to face the brunt of an economic collapse. Leaderships seeking control always prefer to control the flow of men & materials and then deciding distribution of welfare. 

    The people of Bhutan are free to choose the type of aspirations they want to be materialized through development. However, textbook policies, in their original form, have a limited place in the real world. Despite a large hydropower setup, & exports, Bhutan still needs to import power in the off-season. The delays in developing new projects & absence of other streams like Solar / Wind still keep Bhutan energy insecure. I am certain that it is understood that smaller businesses keep the household income up and directly impact the happiness index so cherished by the country. Income from institutional trade does add to the government revenue, but only has a median impact on household growth. Policies that isolate people and impede collaboration mostly go against basic social constructs. Bhutan may need to diversify its revenue streams, address grassroot realities and focus on the skill development of its population to offer people choices to decide their future. Choices that can be exercised & materialized & not just traded for happiness. 

Chinese Information Influence in Bhutan

    We can choose our friends but not neighbours. Bhutan is wedged between the two Asian giants, India & China. Historically, the Himalayan nation has sought peace & maintained focus on Gross National Happiness (GNH), but as China continues expansionism & India unwilling to buckle, this precarious situation of the Drukpas remains a critical challenge.

    Three attributes mainly dictate national relations: Geography, Culture & Trade. With gradual plains in the south & steep peaks towards the north, even before the enthronement of the Wangchucks in 1907, the flow of people & trade was mostly from the Indian side. Chumbi Valley route did offer access to Tibet, but years of Mongol-Tibetan Invaders kept faith low on promises of riches from the north. Buddhism came to Bhutan in 747 AD, but unlike the Gelugpa (Yellow Hats) sect from Potala Palace in Lhasa, Tibet the Bhutanese majority follows Nyingmapa (Red hats) sect with important monasteries located at Paro, Bumthang (in Bhutan) & Tawang (in India). Even the Kolkata-Malbazaar-Sikkim Silk route that had trade tributaries integrated from Bhutan, was mostly a South to North flow of merchandise. Thus, Bhutan organically aligned with the southern side on historical fundamentals & not on post-colonial ideals.

    The 2019 boundary deal between Bhutan & China, did produce a steam let-off in the relations, but with imagery of Chinese settlements in isolated border areas of Bhutan, their promises look to be as reliable as their products. With ‘control’ as the aim, China intends to go for the bigger prize in Bhutan, ‘influence.’ The toolkit is already in motion.

    In targeted Influence Operations, the slight, imperceptible, incremental change in behaviour is the objective. The strongest play in this game is ‘habituation’. If a person develops a habit of accessing information, in a particular way, his habit can be exploited to implant perceptions. Chinese activism seeks to exploit: weak state institutions, fragile civil societies, or countries where “elite capture” is a feature of the political landscape. With a GINI Index of 37.4 & GNH a priority, Bhutan is not an easy target, but the fragile stability does offer opportunities in three ways:

• Chinese influence that shapes or constrains choices and opinions of local political and economic elites.
• Chinese activities that influence or constrain the parameters of local media and public opinion.
• China’s impact on local civil society and academia.

    With the onboarding of democracy & cultural opening-up in Bhutan, communication platforms were the first inroad targeted by the Chinese. The Bhutan InfoCom & Media Authority lists many active newspapers, with the major ones being Kuensel & The Bhutanese publishing in English & Dzongkha. A scan of these will indicate perceived freedom for journalists to comment on local issues, Indian issues & global news but a minimal critique on the state. While not much is picked up by these papers from the Chinese media, Indian discourse seems to find editorial interest. This undertow of highlighting the noisy Indian democracy seems to be the first straw in managing information flow for the Chinese operatives.

    On the internet front, the majority of Bhutanese took to WeChat as the community messaging service (I don’t call it social media). Only a small group that needed to communicate with contacts in India adopted Whatsapp. The WeChat ecosystem has provided easy opportunities to proliferate anti-India sentiments and sometimes even anti-west information. On social media too, the Bhutanese access broadband information, including Chinese Social media, which at any level is just state propaganda because these platforms are banned for the Chinese public. In major population centres like Phuentsholing, Thimphu & Paro, discussion boards on Facebook reveal sharing & commenting on common threads like issues with infrastructure developed by Indian organisations, aspirations of elite-tourism (high paying travellers only), and social issues in India. While people should be free to discuss anything they like, everything comes with a context & a budgetary reality. If not accorded the correct perspective, these discussions are certain to get mainstreamed. Unwillingly influencing free choice.

    Armed with spare cash accumulated from trade excesses with the world, China offered $10 Billion to Bhutan in 2017, during the peak of the Doklam crisis. Now, this was symbolic against what India integrates with Bhutan, but was clearly vectored towards a debt trap since it far exceeded the absorptive capacity of the Bhutanese economy. While India offers assistance & sustainable hydropower investments, Chinese financial help to countries is mostly turning into long-term headaches, Sri Lanka being the latest victim.

    Anyone who has travelled there will agree that Bhutan is a peaceful abode. It is not perfect but the general aspiration is to live in this imperfect harmony. However, this balance is as dynamic as the definition of happiness. People today are exposed to luxuries & they continue to climb Maslow’s pyramid, with time. Carbon Negative & GNH concepts are getting redefined. Today, Beautiful valleys aside, Ferro-Silicon Industries in Pasakha on the Indian border spew effluents that have continuously degraded the quality of tea from the gardens on the Indian side. The Barsa river water bears the ill effects of these industries as it flows into India and the effects from factories at Samste, Gelephu is the same. COVID induced tourism ban has shattered the low/middle-end tourism industry dependent on tourists from the nearby Indian States. This impacted a large number of Bhutanese livelihoods and speaks of the robustness of medical facilities available. The Lhotshompa expulsion issue may be suppressed now, but it will always be a chapter of Bhutanese history. Ideals are easy, civilisation is costly.

View of Pasakha Industrial Area (Bhutan) From Central Dooars Tea Estate (India)

    It may have faults, but the Bhutanese people do deserve ‘Sovereignty’. Of land, of choice & of their way of life. The influence of media may just be the next step towards continued expansion by China inside the Land of Thunder Dragon. Sometimes, the worst part for Bhutan seems to be the need for choosing between things it does not want.