Data Protection: Incentivising a Culture of Compliance

As a risk professional, I have been interacting with a lot of peers on the pending implementation of the new Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Act. While a lot of conversation gravitates to the impact on the way business is conducted & costs of compliance, the tone of the exchanges is inclined towards avoiding penalties of non-compliance.

In the world of creating regulations, the typical thought has often been to create rules, impose penalties, and hope that entities will comply. That is often reasonable in vital & incremental policy formulations. However, sweeping changes like the DPDP Act require more than just a check-the-box approach. To protect sovereign data, the implementation process needs to foster a culture of compliance rather than just superficial adherence.

Why the punitive-only models fail

Regulations that mainly focus on punishment often lead to minimal compliance. Compliance teams tend to do only what is necessary to avoid penalties, creating a superficial culture of data protection. This is particularly true in the fintech sector, where innovation, speed, and data flow are vital. Superficial compliance can result in higher costs due to constant control adjustments or ongoing vulnerabilities caused by workarounds. The DPDP Act aims higher by granting rights to individuals and outlining obligations for data fiduciaries, while also imposing serious penalties. However, unless companies see data protection as a way to add business value, they will only achieve checkbox compliance instead of true resilience.

Fintech – a sector that illustrates the challenge

Fintech firms serve as a clear example. They rely heavily on data, use complex technology, and operate under multiple regulations, such as Reserve Bank of India rules, NPCI guidelines and KYC/AML requirements. Many are finding that the costs of adopting new technology and shifting processes are a barrier to meaningful compliance. For instance, legal experts point out that granular consent for each transaction, a requirement of the DPDP Act, is being seen as a significant process obstacle for digital payments platforms. Tech-Ops experts feel that while fintechs are accustomed to handling data, they are less developed in privacy governance, needing system revamp, staff training, and integration of consent management.

Incentivising the right behaviour

Internal incentives: Companies should establish internal KPIs related to data protection that connect to business outcomes, such as customer trust, brand loyalty, fewer breaches, and faster onboarding with secure data flows. They can reward teams for "privacy by design" rather than just for completing compliance tasks.

Regulator/business incentives: Instead of focusing solely on fines, regulators should offer positive incentives. This could include recognising or certifying strong data protection frameworks, providing faster regulatory approvals to firms with mature data governance, or offering regulatory sandboxes for new data-driven services built on solid privacy foundations.

Habit formation: The classic "habit-curve" applies to any change:

Awareness -> early adoption -> routinization -> automatic behaviour.

It shows that until automatic behaviour is reached, changes remain delicate. For fintech companies, embedding data protection requires more than policy changes; it means integrating it into daily routines like having a data privacy checkpoint at every product meeting, including fiduciary obligations in vendor contracts, and making consent layers a default part of user interfaces. Over time, these practices need to become part of normal behaviour instead of just procedures.

Sector-specific tempo: The speed of the habit curve varies across sectors. A fintech startup that pivots monthly faces a different curve and risks compared to a legacy bank with mature cycles. On the flip side, costs of changing habits, such as trainer time, system redesign, and vendor alignment, are higher for established firms. Thus, incentives and support need to match these nuances: smaller fintechs could benefit from regulatory guidance, technology vouchers, or sharing best practices, while larger firms may focus on automation, dashboards, and self-service consent platforms.

Technology cost vs benefit: The biggest barrier to adoption is the upfront cost of technology, such as consent engines, data traceability, audit trails, and deletion workflows. Some firms may implement technology superficially, but not fully, like capturing consent without establishing the routine for deletion upon request. If companies understand that investing in technology is not just a compliance cost, but a competitive edge, the view changes. If users trust a platform with their data, companies can offer better services and lower breach protection costs. Regulators can encourage this view by indicating that mature frameworks may reduce future regulatory burdens and inspection frequency, or even provide safe harbours.

So…

As DPDP Act establishes the regulatory landscape for data protection in India’s digital economy. Relying solely on punishment, fines, and audits will only lead to nominal compliance. Actual benefits will be accrued when organisations make data protection a habit and integrate it into their routines while being supported by regulatory incentives.

In fintechs, where technology, data, and trust intersect, the challenge is significant, but so is the opportunity. Firms that can transform data privacy from a cost centre to a value centre will display sustainable growth. The sooner the culture changes, the faster companies will move from "we must comply" to "we choose to excel."

Decentralized National Digital Identity on Blockchain: Bhutan's Case

Few nations demonstrate foresight and adaptability as well as Bhutan. The Himalayan kingdom, long admired for its commitment to Gross National Happiness, is now taking a bold step into the digital future, blending political maturity with technological ambition.

From Monarchy to Modern Governance

Bhutan’s democratic journey remains one of the most peaceful transitions in modern history. In the early 2000s, King Jigme Singye Wangchuck voluntarily devolved power to an elected government, culminating in the first democratic elections in 2008. This rare, deliberate shift from monarchy to democracy built a foundation of trust, accountability, and continuity qualities now reflected in Bhutan’s digital policy framework.

Blockchain and National Identity

Building on that legacy, Bhutan’s National Digital Identity (NDI) initiative, led by Druk Holding & Investments (DHI), is set to anchor its architecture on the Ethereum blockchain by 2026. This will enable citizens to hold self-sovereign, verifiable digital identities, providing secure access to public and financial services while maintaining their privacy. By leveraging Ethereum’s global interoperability and decentralised trust, Bhutan positions itself as a digital-first democracy capable of engaging seamlessly with international systems.

Crypto Reserves and Economic Diversification

Bhutan’s digital evolution extends beyond identity. Its sovereign fund, DHI, has quietly built significant Bitcoin reserves through sustainable, hydropower-driven mining, a strategy that converts green energy into digital capital. This positions Bhutan as a clean crypto hub, aligning technology with sustainability, and attracting fintech investments and blockchain startups.

Reversing Brain Drain and Driving Growth

The move toward a digital economy could help reverse Bhutan’s emigration trends, particularly among young professionals who left in search of better opportunities after COVID-19. As blockchain, AI, and fintech ecosystems expand, Bhutan stands to create high-tech, high-value employment, nurturing both local talent and diaspora returnees.

Balancing Innovation with Risk

Yet, the journey is not without risk. Anchoring national identity and financial data to public blockchains introduces new vectors of cyber exposure. While personal data will remain off-chain, metadata, cryptographic keys, and system governance must be rigorously protected. Moreover, legal, judicial, and institutional frameworks must evolve to validate blockchain-based proofs, ensure data sovereignty, and mitigate systemic vulnerabilities. For a nation digitising at scale, cyber resilience, privacy regulation, and sovereign control will define long-term success.

Digital Sovereignty….

Bhutan’s transformation from monarchy to democracy, from hydropower to blockchain, is more than a policy; it’s a vision in action. By aligning governance, sustainability, and innovation, Bhutan is quietly crafting a blueprint for responsible digital sovereignty. In a world often torn between speed and stability, Bhutan shows that it’s possible to pursue both with trust as the anchor, and technology as the bridge.

Different take on Kashmir

    A very broad understanding of Relativity is that Point of View depends on Point of Viewing. It is more complicated than that, but it does explain how we interpret things.

    Travelling to Kashmir for work, was always normal and it felt the same this time. The trip was planned in detail, the daily schedule was aligned, contingencies were appreciated and I collected as much data as I could on the intended places of visit & had questions ready. Out on the first flight of the day, the window seat too supported the old routine of terrain analysis & searching for familiar areas from above. Change hit while traversing the Srinagar terminal since now, as someone out of uniform, appreciation of normalcy took centre stage. I had last flown out of SXR in 2016 and security at the airport was more than at any other place. This time, the place still felt secure, yet the security was not visible. 

    On the drive to the city, one saw new cafes, retail outlets, malls & of course, traffic. Suddenly the comparison with other state capitals that I had recently visited brought out the positives of development being afforded to citizens. Though tagged along were the issues of rapid urbanization, guess that is universal.

    Day 1 afternoon the agenda was visiting a business site in Badgam about 25 km away. I last remembered the place as a semi-rural community which we had crossed in a heavily armed convoy. This time, a newly launched store was giving people the opportunity of experiencing organized retail. Out of habit, work started with a structured set of briefings loaded with questions. As we progressed from the ground to the second floor & professional matters covered, the focus shifted to digging deeper into the feel of the store. I am still learning the trade, but I strongly feel that retail is more about people than merchandise. 

    The people echoed a sense of pride & ownership. They were all keen to learn. The team was cohesive & discussions were targeted at becoming better. Dashboards aside, it was evident that the place was in good hands. The best proof came from customers I saw, who came with curious eyes & checked out with bags of clothes. This was not what I had seen in the last work visit to Kashmir & certainly very different from what was read in mainstream media. 

    Back in the room, the night was spent answering emails & questioning my belief system. Was Kashmir back to normal? What is normal? Are a few hours of learning this time enough to negate a few years of learning last time?

    Day 2 started with breakfast surrounded by Gujarati tourists whose volume was directly proportional to their excitement of feeling cold. It was too early for snow, but Jignes bhai (name changed) was optimistic about Pahalgam and the smiles on the family were telling.

    An early start for Anantnag took us through the fog at Pampore. The highway showed exits to places like Tral & Pulwama which were always associated with violence. Again, the drive felt safe but security was hardly visible. 

    The workplace at Anantnag was again reassuring as the scope for improvement was matched by the willingness for improvement. After a few hours of thrashing processes, the discussion over tea, loaded with milk & sugar (could not hurt the intent of hospitality so just drank it) shifted towards the benefits of more, better-paying jobs that were coming into the valley. Organized businesses were slowly becoming a career option as the elimination of 'Bandhs' meant that people could work & get paid throughout the year. A luxury that was only available to government employees earlier. 

    It made a special impact when people discussed the security forces without realizing my past in uniform. Two statements stood out; first, a store owner commented that sales to uniformed persons are a substantial part of his turnover and second the hotel guard, who was from Uri, answering as to why there is no security force on the streets said." How can it be normal, if it doesn't look normal?"

    I was even more comfortable on the ride back to the airport with the driver playing Punjabi rap numbers. The saffron plantations & effect of autumn on Chinar trees did make for good sights but as I took off from Kashmir, the question lingered, is 'normal' back?

    Once home, I searched for recent analyses on Kashmir. Political, Economic, Military & Social. While they all made sense, their vector sum did not align with the reality I saw on the ground. That is the beauty of truth, it does not need to make sense. People may define their own 'normal', but if I just take the set of people of Kashmir that I met, the aspirational Kashmiri is seeking his/her version of Kashmir. For years they have borne the social costs of economic stagnation & the economic costs of social stagnation. Upliftment now is a human right. 

    Listening to people discuss growth possibilities in Bandipore, Kupwara & Baramulla was very heartening. In my last experience, just crossing these areas required reconnaissance & planning. After years of turmoil, someone managing the affairs is doing the right things as the major event in the city was an investor summit instead of a procession or call for a strike at Lal Chowk.

    One may question whether opening organized retail is more important than say a hospital or a school, but where we stand as a nation, all of the above need parallel processing. The space program needs to co-exist with the food distribution to the poor. 

    I saw a Kashmir that is breaking the chains of an uncomfortable past. It is aspirational. It does not want to do the same things that were done earlier and it is ready to take control. This time the feel of Kashmir was different. What impressed me more than the beauty of the place was the determination of this generation to build a better future.

Restarting Bhutan: The Policy Factor

 

    The South Asian region is seeing nations tripping over poor economic decisions made over the past few years. In the Indian neighbourhood, Pakistan is living from bailout to bailout, Sri Lanka is in major turmoil, Bangladesh fears the worst, Nepal is showing cracks & Afghanistan has not had a chance to even look at the economy. Most of these countries have faltered by applying policies that have worked in other countries without (or with) realizing the extreme differences in fiscal realities. As a common factor, Pakistan & Sri Lanka have gone down the Chinese debt trap and Bangladesh & Nepal are on a similar path. The abode of peace, Bhutan was seen as the wise one, biting only as much as it could and pursuing happiness. But of late it has been taking decisions that might put its people on the path of discomfort.

    The Bhutanese economy is largely dependent on Hydropower & Tourism. Hydropower plants financed by India export electricity back to the power-hungry neighbour and generate vital cash flow. Add to this large Indian assistance money & defence support create a major chunk of Bhutan’s money bucket. The country has also been prudent in spending this wealth in ways that protect ecological & economical needs, however, it is walking a tight rope in trying to balance sustainable development & aspiration of people who seek a better life.

    Two years of COVID were met by a predictable government response, isolation. In absence of vital medical facilities & complete dependence on vaccine supplies led to people being made to confine in their communities. This had a major impact on small businesses & trade which was the mainstay of the growing middle class. Even when the world eased lockdowns, Bhutan kept the people confined & only opened institutional trade enabling the government to sustain the population. So, while the numbers showed healthy economic activity, the benefits were only doled out as Kidu. The simplest lay interpretation of kidu is that, in the Bhutanese system, the King personally takes care of the well-being of the people. It is a unique and humane social security system to ensure necessities and livelihood as well as any other aspect of a Bhutanese citizen's life when necessary. The greatness of the gesture is accepted, however, this support while sustaining is not a tool for development.

    A total absence of tourists meant that no hotels, taxis & related businesses had any income. Most connections were lost, skilled manpower reverse-migrated & infrastructure suffered decay of disuse. Small traders who used to import goods from the land ports of Phuentsholing in the South West & Samdrup Jonkar in the South East had to scale down due to reduced demand & difficulty in sourcing. One of the biggest strengths of Indo-Bhutan trade was always the people-to-people relations that integrated commercial lines in both countries & facilitated people-driven growth & exchanges. Economic hubs of Siliguri & Guwahati were always social melting pots hosting mutually beneficial convergence.

    The decline in COVID threat came as good news to people who had prayed for the restoration of normalcy. However, recent policies announced by the Bhutanese government hint at an inclination towards the proclamation of openness with retention of control. The free movement of people across the borders, up to a certain distance for Indians in Bhutan & unrestricted for Bhutanese in India is being changed. Indians can now only venture inside this limited area for 24 hours & will need to undergo certain processing. This limits the flow of casual tourists, labour, traders & others who may not have the luxury of paying for the processes. While India has not given the reciprocal web for the Bhutanese, locals on the Indian side feel that their generous hospitality is being replied to with paper policy tilting the deep relations of equality cherished by people from both sides.

    In search of high-value-low-volume tourism, Bhutan has announced an increased visitor fee for all tourists. This again will end up affecting the budget traveller & the affordable hotel businesses in Bhutan. While Bhutan may assume a larger per-person spend from the tourists, the high-end tourist infrastructure is very limited & does not match the service standards offered in a similar process, globally.

    These two decisions appear to be influenced by similar policies in other nations. Japan has a "sayonara tax". The 1,000 Yen ($9.25) fee, is paid by international visitors as they leave the country. This is reasonable as tourists on average get the value for money in return. Bhutan charging about $200 each from international tourists & Rs 1200 for Indian tourists may end up stunting its own travel industry. While the bigger players & government may see larger revenue, it is the smaller businesses that will end up suffering. Similarly, the travel restrictions are most likely to create a situation of reduced interactions. This is strange as for decades it was this free cultural exchange that created the unique social blend of Bhutan.

    These decisions have an eerie similarity with actions in the neighbourhood. Sri Lanka had suddenly decided that they will go pure organic farming without giving time for the logistics chain & related ecosystem to develop. Unfortunately, it was the people in the lowest part of the pyramid who suffered and had to face the brunt of an economic collapse. Leaderships seeking control always prefer to control the flow of men & materials and then deciding distribution of welfare. 

    The people of Bhutan are free to choose the type of aspirations they want to be materialized through development. However, textbook policies, in their original form, have a limited place in the real world. Despite a large hydropower setup, & exports, Bhutan still needs to import power in the off-season. The delays in developing new projects & absence of other streams like Solar / Wind still keep Bhutan energy insecure. I am certain that it is understood that smaller businesses keep the household income up and directly impact the happiness index so cherished by the country. Income from institutional trade does add to the government revenue, but only has a median impact on household growth. Policies that isolate people and impede collaboration mostly go against basic social constructs. Bhutan may need to diversify its revenue streams, address grassroot realities and focus on the skill development of its population to offer people choices to decide their future. Choices that can be exercised & materialized & not just traded for happiness. 

Chinese Information Influence in Bhutan

    We can choose our friends but not neighbours. Bhutan is wedged between the two Asian giants, India & China. Historically, the Himalayan nation has sought peace & maintained focus on Gross National Happiness (GNH), but as China continues expansionism & India unwilling to buckle, this precarious situation of the Drukpas remains a critical challenge.

    Three attributes mainly dictate national relations: Geography, Culture & Trade. With gradual plains in the south & steep peaks towards the north, even before the enthronement of the Wangchucks in 1907, the flow of people & trade was mostly from the Indian side. Chumbi Valley route did offer access to Tibet, but years of Mongol-Tibetan Invaders kept faith low on promises of riches from the north. Buddhism came to Bhutan in 747 AD, but unlike the Gelugpa (Yellow Hats) sect from Potala Palace in Lhasa, Tibet the Bhutanese majority follows Nyingmapa (Red hats) sect with important monasteries located at Paro, Bumthang (in Bhutan) & Tawang (in India). Even the Kolkata-Malbazaar-Sikkim Silk route that had trade tributaries integrated from Bhutan, was mostly a South to North flow of merchandise. Thus, Bhutan organically aligned with the southern side on historical fundamentals & not on post-colonial ideals.

    The 2019 boundary deal between Bhutan & China, did produce a steam let-off in the relations, but with imagery of Chinese settlements in isolated border areas of Bhutan, their promises look to be as reliable as their products. With ‘control’ as the aim, China intends to go for the bigger prize in Bhutan, ‘influence.’ The toolkit is already in motion.

    In targeted Influence Operations, the slight, imperceptible, incremental change in behaviour is the objective. The strongest play in this game is ‘habituation’. If a person develops a habit of accessing information, in a particular way, his habit can be exploited to implant perceptions. Chinese activism seeks to exploit: weak state institutions, fragile civil societies, or countries where “elite capture” is a feature of the political landscape. With a GINI Index of 37.4 & GNH a priority, Bhutan is not an easy target, but the fragile stability does offer opportunities in three ways:

• Chinese influence that shapes or constrains choices and opinions of local political and economic elites.
• Chinese activities that influence or constrain the parameters of local media and public opinion.
• China’s impact on local civil society and academia.

    With the onboarding of democracy & cultural opening-up in Bhutan, communication platforms were the first inroad targeted by the Chinese. The Bhutan InfoCom & Media Authority lists many active newspapers, with the major ones being Kuensel & The Bhutanese publishing in English & Dzongkha. A scan of these will indicate perceived freedom for journalists to comment on local issues, Indian issues & global news but a minimal critique on the state. While not much is picked up by these papers from the Chinese media, Indian discourse seems to find editorial interest. This undertow of highlighting the noisy Indian democracy seems to be the first straw in managing information flow for the Chinese operatives.

    On the internet front, the majority of Bhutanese took to WeChat as the community messaging service (I don’t call it social media). Only a small group that needed to communicate with contacts in India adopted Whatsapp. The WeChat ecosystem has provided easy opportunities to proliferate anti-India sentiments and sometimes even anti-west information. On social media too, the Bhutanese access broadband information, including Chinese Social media, which at any level is just state propaganda because these platforms are banned for the Chinese public. In major population centres like Phuentsholing, Thimphu & Paro, discussion boards on Facebook reveal sharing & commenting on common threads like issues with infrastructure developed by Indian organisations, aspirations of elite-tourism (high paying travellers only), and social issues in India. While people should be free to discuss anything they like, everything comes with a context & a budgetary reality. If not accorded the correct perspective, these discussions are certain to get mainstreamed. Unwillingly influencing free choice.

    Armed with spare cash accumulated from trade excesses with the world, China offered $10 Billion to Bhutan in 2017, during the peak of the Doklam crisis. Now, this was symbolic against what India integrates with Bhutan, but was clearly vectored towards a debt trap since it far exceeded the absorptive capacity of the Bhutanese economy. While India offers assistance & sustainable hydropower investments, Chinese financial help to countries is mostly turning into long-term headaches, Sri Lanka being the latest victim.

    Anyone who has travelled there will agree that Bhutan is a peaceful abode. It is not perfect but the general aspiration is to live in this imperfect harmony. However, this balance is as dynamic as the definition of happiness. People today are exposed to luxuries & they continue to climb Maslow’s pyramid, with time. Carbon Negative & GNH concepts are getting redefined. Today, Beautiful valleys aside, Ferro-Silicon Industries in Pasakha on the Indian border spew effluents that have continuously degraded the quality of tea from the gardens on the Indian side. The Barsa river water bears the ill effects of these industries as it flows into India and the effects from factories at Samste, Gelephu is the same. COVID induced tourism ban has shattered the low/middle-end tourism industry dependent on tourists from the nearby Indian States. This impacted a large number of Bhutanese livelihoods and speaks of the robustness of medical facilities available. The Lhotshompa expulsion issue may be suppressed now, but it will always be a chapter of Bhutanese history. Ideals are easy, civilisation is costly.

View of Pasakha Industrial Area (Bhutan) From Central Dooars Tea Estate (India)

    It may have faults, but the Bhutanese people do deserve ‘Sovereignty’. Of land, of choice & of their way of life. The influence of media may just be the next step towards continued expansion by China inside the Land of Thunder Dragon. Sometimes, the worst part for Bhutan seems to be the need for choosing between things it does not want.

Damaged Goods Left Behind in Afghanistan

We all like to get new gadgets, buy new vehicles & collect implements that make our lives easier. The shine of a new phone, the smell of a new car & the sound of a new machine always lifts us. However, as someone who spent the last few decades maintaining, repairing & restoring stuff, I am a firm believer that something that doesn’t work when needed, is as good as not there.

After overtaking Afghanistan, the Taliban were delighted to discover the spoils of war. Billions of dollars worth of military equipment left behind by the Americans & allies. From a sheer scale point of view, this made the Taliban the best-equipped terror group in the world. Reality hit when they realized that most of the higher-tech equipment like aircraft, helicopters & other weapon systems were rendered unserviceable before discarding them into the hands of the Taliban. 

While rudimentary small weapons like the Russian AKs hardly need any care, to keep a helicopter air-worthy or a radar/radio mission reliable is a technical & logistical ballet, pretty hard to master. 

One may wonder why anyone will leave such expensive & sophisticated war machinery on their way out of the battle zone, knowing fully well that it will find its way into the hands of the enemy? It all boils down to time & cost. While it took two decades to accumulate the equipment in Afghanistan, the decision to withdraw gave the allies just months to extricate soldiers, material & even afghans who were embedded into the operations. Pakistan had reaped many benefits extracting transit fees from over-land convoys supporting IASF till 2014 & the Americans thereafter, the same routes were not prudent for going back. Faced with the high cost & limited lift capacities of aircraft, it made more sense to leave the equipment behind than to haul it back.

While managing the lifecycle of any equipment, the decision to discard is quantified in terms of the economics of sustainment. Once inducted in the battlefield, the equipment value depreciates with use and if the cost of maintaining the system exceeds half of its residual value, it makes less sense to sustain the system. Media reports are full of coverage on damaged hardware left over by the American forces and how the Taliban must be regretting their premature celebrations on inheriting the latest war toys. As of now, it appears that the Taliban has limited capacity to make these weapon systems fit-for-use, but I would not disregard the ingenuity of self-taught technicians in innovating repairs. They may not be Tony Stark, but the influence of places like Darra Adam Khel is always lurking.

The disintegration of the USSR taught us that weapon stockpiles coupled with crippled economies make perfect targets for weapons trafficking. The situation in Afghanistan & the unfastened control of various Taliban warlords gives a direct pipeline for Pakistan to do what it does best. Export terror. 

At a very broad level, military logistics is a system of activities, capabilities & processes that connect a nation’s economy to the battlefield. The outcome of this process is the establishment of a ‘well’ from which the forces draw their combat potential. It is certainly an expensive well.  Obsessed with ruling through the barrel of a gun, the Taliban leadership will dedicate substantial resources to operationalize the military equipment & infrastructure sidelining national needs expected from governments. It remains to be seen who moves into this business with the Taliban since the real value of any conflict is the debt that it produces. 

The Americans may have lost a big stockpile of hardware, but from a simple cost-benefit, they gained a trouble-free exit while their opposite side was rejoicing the illusion of gains. Smaller weapons that were taken over do not pose any major threat to the west and a peaceful Afghanistan is far too complicated a game. But in the optics of it all, the US not only displaced Russians as the last empire to retreat from Afghanistan but also changed the image of terror from a traditionally dressed man holding an AK-47 to a Taliban in modern combat gear holding an M4. Sometimes we are collateral damage in our war against ourselves.

What is 'not' being said on Afghanistan

For thousands of years, life in Afghanistan flourished. Geography dictated lifestyles with vast valleys and barren stretches, grouping tribes with different takes on living. The imposition of modern social constructs started with this collection of tribal identities being defined in the boundary of the nation-state of Afghanistan. Empires thereafter tried their best to ‘manage’ this landlocked place, only to add entropy and leave. Today, the world is live-viewing a human calamity with the Afghans having the illusion of freedom as a choice.  

In a very cold and callous way, countries are doing in / for Afghanistan whatever is necessary (for them). It may be an over-simplification, but this simple statement can be injected with reality when we start defining ‘necessary’. Certainly, Peru is not in the field, but the customary suspects of the ‘perpetual great game’, are. The US, et al left because they did not want to focus on winning a game that will soon become irrelevant to domestic politics. Russia played the silent watch game, waiting for someone to remove them from the unwanted position of the last empire buried in Afghanistan. Pakistan gained from war profiteering in its Strategic Depth & its master China is now looking at an unavoidable involvement, even if just to prove that it is a superpower. 

It seems to be a checklist of superpower-ship; amassed wealth, powerful military, interventionist policies & involvement in Afghanistan. The Chinese hope not to repeat the mistakes of the Greeks, the Mongols, the British, the Soviets, and finally the Americans and their allies, but new mistakes will still be mistakes. If Afghanistan sinks into chaos, it could become a serious obstacle on the way to a stable and secure "Silk Road", China’s global infrastructure development strategy. Beyond serving as a sanctuary for anti-Western terrorists, unruly Muslim fundamentalists in power in Kabul might be eager to support the Uighur cause in China.

Stakeholders like United States, China, India, and Russia articulate two interests that justify allocating resources to stabilize Afghanistan:

• Preventing terrorist groups from establishing secure bases

• Promoting the economic rise of continental South Asia by securing investments in connectivity and integrating Afghanistan into those networks. (BRI, Rare-earths etc)

The best way to realize both of these objectives is to establish an effective state in Afghanistan, which raises the question of who will build it, pay for it, and fight for it. Taliban doesn’t seem to emerge as an answer to these questions. Even historically, No Afghan ruler or government has been able to build and sustain a state within its territory using solely domestic resources. The presence of foreign donors or security providers, as well as economic cooperation with some neighbours, can threaten other regional players.  While the stabilization of Afghanistan produces a partial public good for the international community, the actors who establish such stability eventually exploit the position they acquire in their own interest. Both the Soviets in the 1980s and the US since 2001 intended to “stabilize” Afghanistan in ways consistent with their interests. But rivals and adversaries such as Pakistan and Iran, the United States (against the Soviets), China (likewise), and Russia (versus the United States), perceived their efforts as threatening, even when those states also benefited from the limited stability imposed by the foreign presence.

Given Afghanistan’s economic and demographic profile as well as its linguistic, religious, ethnic, and economic links to neighbouring countries, virtually any neighbour or great power can destabilize the country at minimal cost by offering benefits to clients willing to fight. So how do you find common ground when the vector sum of individual interests is zero? Should the world let the Afghans find their path? 

It is too early to conclude the analysis. For now, away from the news, one might like to focus on what is ‘not’ being said on Afghanistan:

• China’s diplomatic dealings with Taliban

• Race for the Lithium deposits

• How the Taliban allowed all western (enemy)  military personnel to leave, unharmed.

• Should UNAMA now consider peacekeeping 

• Indo-Afghanistan trade through Chabahar

• Will the Taliban remain contended with Afghanistan or will they……

And finally, Pakistan. What new play does that bewilderment of a nation have to ensure that it continues to extort rent threatening its own collapse?

To Be Contd.....

Messaging in Troubled Times

The second wave amplified the lessons of the first. Some were learned. Some were not. Most were forgotten. There might be a shortage of medical supplies & many other things, but information overdose is a reality.

 Earlier, information sources were in the custody of a few then web 2.0 made everyone a ‘seeder & a leacher’ of information online. This democratized information but skewed data-to-noise ratio. There is a certain alienation in digital communication. Not being fact to face, delayed feedback, devoid of non-verbal aspects and easy anonymity are a few of the parts that take the feel away.

 Groups on community messaging services like WhatsApp, following on social media platforms like Instagram & Twitter etc make joining any conversation possible. The urge is understood but not bereft of responsibility. Platforms are full of false info, tangential conclusions and utter noise masking the critical factual data. The ‘Pandemic’ is now accompanied by the ‘Infodemic’.

 In the pandemic, people have been marked, stereotyped, discriminated against, viewed negatively, and suffered status loss due to a perceived contact with a disease. In addition, high levels of stress and anxiety was experienced by people due to significant changes in their day-to-day life, social structures and movements. To top that, information professing helplessness & fear might be a good ploy to sell products or modify offline behaviour, but is certainly not aligned to a nationally beneficial perspective.

 Did we get hit again? Yes! Is someone at fault? Yes! But purely in the realm of information management, the most important factor is to empower the people with the right information. Sadly, it is complex to be simple.

 Effective communication is proactive, polite, imaginative, innovative, creative, constructive, professional, progressive, energetic, enabling, transparent and technology-friendly. However, there are multiple factors playing a key role in accepting information, like social and cultural characteristics. Gender, generational contrasts, language inclinations, strict convictions, religious beliefs, and varying literacy influence the action of the masses. To package information in a way that it presents the needed facts, in time & conveyed in a way that it gets accepted and acted upon is the big win. This is the integral job of all the official Twitter handles, Facebook pages etc and they need to be manned by specialists who can keep up with technology & calamity.

 Information on oxygen shortage clutters information on oxygen availability. It would be prudent to have a setup informing the reality of medical support availability and even availability of first-care information on how to approach symptoms. Today, it is crowdsourcing that is the real source of info, a simple analytic tool can converge feeds, mine info and make user data available.

 Communicating responsibly is everyone’s job. Highlighting ills is important but so is selling hope. And somewhere in between lies the need of plain information away from all the padding of politics, marketing, greed & sometimes just habits. Crisis response communication setups are the need of the hour. They need not necessarily be government-run. The setup will encompass manpower, hardware, technology and cross-departmental chain-linking. Private players can add value, incorporate innovation & be commercially viable for long-term sustenance & growth. Data integrity & security can always be imposed based on law-of-the-land info governance.

 Deaths due to covid are human statistics & not just numbers. The narrative controls have blurred all responsibilities. From the originators, the spreaders, the faulty planners & opportunity grabbers to everyone who has been an accomplice in “forwarded as received” acts. The need for a specialist information dissemination mechanism is as critical as the spread of the virus.

Hope feels that this pandemic will be over soon, but it might not be our last. There are many things that we need to get right, information management is vital as it will always be the common thread, whatever the next wave or type of calamity be.

 

 

 

 

Force Preservation in the Online Social Domain – A Digital Camouflage

In this age of digital socialization, the digital realm increasingly becomes a significant dimension of the contemporary battle space. Much has been said and done about cyber threats; however, very limited attention is paid to the challenges arising from the malicious use of openly available digital information related to military organizations.

Today, adversaries do not require significant resources or advanced cyber capabilities to pose a threat. Social media and connected technologies are easily accessible, providing information and infrastructure that can be exploited by anyone with access to an internet-enabled computer.

Social media is a mix of human psychology—specifically social behavior—and the Internet of Things. While this assessment is largely accurate, it's essential to note that the human element accounts for approximately 70% of this dynamic, while the network comprises the remaining 30%. The personal internet was available even in the early 1990s, but it was the synthesis of the human urge to communicate—with a person (a face) rather than an IP address—that spurred the explosive growth of social media platforms. The arrival of the smartphone, a handheld connected computer, further placed the world in our palms. While this convergence brings numerous benefits, it also raises concerns. As devices—from phones to watches—become computers, they simultaneously transform into potential surveillance tools.

The survival of any military force is a primary concern in strategic planning and decision-making. This consideration extends well beyond military operations and involves issues such as public support and political cohesion. It is evident daily how the nation's military protects its members. Recently, the media highlighted steps taken by the Army to safeguard soldiers against the coronavirus, in addition to measures implemented by the government. We have also seen security efforts surrounding various bases and ports, which are vital military functions. Similar to physical security, digital security is another aspect that keeps military planners vigilant.

We have heard about measures such as app bans, smartphone bans, and wearable device bans mentioned in various reports concerning the military. While these measures can be effective, there is no silver bullet solution. With such pervasive technology, apps like Facebook and devices like smartphones and smartwatches have become integral to our daily lives. Their functionality has become a necessity, especially with e-banking, e-commerce, and crucial contact tracing platforms. Therefore, a completely non-implementable digital isolation as a protective measure offers limited value.

Separating mobile phones from defense personnel in official areas or during exercises and operations may be critical for operational security; however, it does not address the complex threats in the digital domain. An individual’s digital footprint is established over time, and the accumulated data points are collected through years of internet activity. These data points are processed through machine learning and artificial intelligence-based computational processes, creating an online profile. Leaving a smartphone outside a particular office five days a week simply indicates that an individual works inside that office. Subroutines transmitting location data from devices are embedded in basic map applications, and one does not need covert surveillance infrastructure to access this information. Similar conclusions can be drawn from the analysis of any other interfaced app. Services like Flightradar24 provide information on Air Force C-17 flights, while geotagged selfies can reveal even isolated border locations. It does not matter whether the photo is shared on Facebook, WhatsApp, or emailed; the location metadata is embedded within the image and is independent of the app used.

While the military may isolate individuals, open, crowd-sourced information has become a simpler method for obtaining critical inputs. Recently, a Twitter handle posted an old photograph featuring officers from an elite unit. Although many individuals in the image may have retired, comments on the tweet from people eager to engage in discussion or seek recognition revealed the identities of several individuals in the photograph. Cases of people identifying areas and commenting on their military significance are common and cannot simply be ignored. Information about military capabilities, such as personnel and equipment numbers, can even be gathered from civilian and commercial sensors, including footage captured by publicly available or misconfigured traffic and CCTV cameras. It is not one event that poses a security risk; rather, it is the long-term information matrix that can be woven from such data points that raises concerns.

Defeating an adversary, by whatever mechanism, is a cognitive outcome. It is the accumulated stresses of combat and perceptions of the situation that lead to fear, flight, and other psychological responses.

Active, adaptive digital camouflage may be a viable option in modern military operations.

Camouflage is often confused with concealment. To camouflage means to blend in with the surroundings, making one undetectable to an observer, while concealment is simply protecting something from view. Digital camouflage aims to integrate military digital information with various types of 'noise data,' thereby preventing the enemy from honing in on specific information and interpreting it as intelligence. For this strategy to be effective, it must be both pre-emptive and adaptive.

Implementing pre-emptive measures that establish systemic resilience against the malicious use of digital information is crucial. Raising awareness about the adversarial risks associated with the social media information environment is an essential first step, but this general awareness should be complemented by specific educational initiatives, internal communication strategies, and evolving regulations. Militaries are likely to favor these countermeasures as they rely on fundamental deception tactics. 

Effective measures should protect critical information in several ways: by minimizing predictable online behavior patterns and by camouflaging indicators that cannot be avoided, pairing them with meaningless changes that provide alternative interpretations. Once military commanders incorporate these elements into their mission plans, technical specialists can take on the responsibility of implementing them.

Extracting information from the open internet, especially given the abundance of social media posts, presents an opportunity where a small investment can yield significant returns. To counter an adversary effectively, keeping them occupied within the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) loop is essential. A strategically planned denial of opportunities should be integrated into the operational philosophy; this approach represents a significant advancement on the horizon. Camouflage serves a functional role in concealment, but it should not be seen as a substitute for offensive capabilities. Preserving forces in the digital realm must be a core part of our strategic communication plan.

Agile Military

 In the study of considerations of various military operations the phrase “Flexibility” comes up often. The word assumes greater importance as it is a critical feature when we discuss offensive or defensive operations, counter insurgency or logistics & administration. In execution of any of these, the key is flexibility for a favorable result. The limitations in warfare are multifold complex and, in some ways, complicated when compared to writing concepts, even logical ones. People involved in defense force know that in hierarchical organisations like the services, flow of info, orders and authority is linear. Most documents and execution follow the waterfall concept where steps are sequential and quantified.

 

One would expect military organisations to be nimble and adaptive, for the simple reason that they plan for variable situations including the one which is least likely as a contingency. In the execution phase, these ‘set plans’ bring in a realm of order enabling ‘control’ and ‘predictability’ of successive phases. This attribute of planning actually changes the ‘design flexibility’ to a ‘constrained flexibility’.

 

We continue to evolve our concepts of operations by reeling in perspectives from the Age of Information. The ever-evolving technology in this age and its applications, plus connectivity, have evolved from the limited access to cross-linked information-based decision support systems.

 

The challenges of the 21^st Century like HADR, Non-State Actors, Nationless Corporations, Asymmetric Warfare & even Rogue States, are problems beyond the ability of any single actor or even a small set of very capable actors. For a successful handling of these challenges, the solution must involve a large, heterogeneous collective of entities working together. This collective is itself, complex and dynamic.

 

A more reasonable label for today’s world is the ‘Age of Interactions’. The Compounding technologies that layer above the framework of networks have given us unimaginable real-time interactions. Resultantly, events that may once have had isolated consequences, now generate consequences that have ripple effects and can quickly spin out of control. The viral nature of today’s interactions requires changes considering uncertainties and risks associated with complex endeavors. They cannot be reduced to manageable modules. What is needed is, both, a new mindset and problem-solving strategy. The most promising approach is to increase Agility. While agility is going to be an existential capability in the Age of Interactions, it is not an end unto itself and thus not a capability that should be maximized. Reasonable agility that can be sustainably scaled is the balance point between agile and traditional approaches.

 

Militaries seek hybrid structures and yet constrain the evolution with ‘command & control’. The word "control" does not describe it best because it indicates the philosophy that complex situations can be controlled; a sort of checklist giving options & actions to counter any emerging situations. This is a dangerous oversimplification. In the emerging multi-dimensional battlefield, the best that one can do is to create a set of conditions that improve the probability that a desirable outcome will occur and to change the condition when what is expected is not occurring. “Control” therefore is an emergent property, not an option to be selected.

 

Mapping from Scrum values, it appears that Focus & Convergence are more reasonable versions of Command and Control. They capture the essential aspects of command and control. They can also easily be understood by individuals without any prior knowledge of, or experience in the same. It appears more reasonable in situations of rapid grouping / regrouping of modular combat entities in maneuver warfare or any other entity that will be self-organizing as the operations progress.  These words do not carry any preconceived notions of how to achieve objectives. The focus hints directly at what is to be accomplished while being independent to the existence of someone in charge. Similarly, convergence denotes what the phrase “control” is meant to achieve without asserting the sequence / path.  

 

Incorporating agility cannot be a task. Change for change’s sake is not Agility. Agility implies effectiveness. An entity’s capabilities and behaviors cannot be agile unless they enable the entity to maintain or improve it’s measures of value. Being agile requires responsiveness. In order to be responsive, an entity must be able to recognize, in a timely manner, potentially significant changes in the external macro and microenvironment (read an adversary, or to itself). It should be able to recognize what would be a proportionate response. An appropriate response would include timely acting. In the context of military, agility will always be uniquely defined as per the threats & the capacities or the enablers & impediments exclusive to us. Given this, within the framework, how do we ingrain agility?

 

The first key to agility is “People”. To have an agile force, scrumming needs to be done on this resource, to etch agile practices. The upgrade to an agile manpower to the military is a complex problem.  HR teams will need to continuously deliver on this. It’s a military force; there can be no down time to process the changes.  It might be easy to change the way people work but extremely difficult to change the way people think. Militaries are virtually living microcosms drilled in battle procedures, which are exact opposite of agile. There are existing aspects that can be leveraged for easing in agility, for example hierarchy. In making organizational level changes, like theaterisation & joint commands, frameworks like Scrum (a modified version customized for target teams focused on envisaged desired structures) can be gradually incorporated in the hierarchy. This could be done on manageable collectives to eventually cover the entire services. This would be beneficial as these hierarchies are grouped to train, operate & deliver as units.

 

We are a successful military with sound principles. Why do we need to incorporate organisation-wide changes that are so radical to our fundamentals?

 

This is not a call for change. It is a case for adapting, improving and getting prepared to avoid a ‘future shock’. It may appear to be a conceptual journey across the landscape. It comprises of Complexity with variables of people, networks and the nature of command & control. In the end no structural or functional change in a military organisation can be called sustainable if it is not agile enough for mitigating continuous change. The exchequer would prefer Adaptive Organisations for Effect Based Operations. These aren’t possible while using world war constructs and yet this is not something out of the blue. Special Forces are the ready examples of an agile outfit. They place Individuals and interactions over processes, mission success over milestones, resource collaboration beyond designated tasks & responding to change over following a plan.

 

That’s an agile military manifesto.

Territorial Claims: China’s Greed

Time is analog. No country, that exists as today, has had a perfect run. History of the world, though the best chronology of our life on the planet, suffers from the flaw of human subjectivity. It ranges from being revealing and enlightening at times to just being a set of lies, agreed upon. So from what we have and what we can make out from it, civilizations, countries and nation states have had their ups and downs and those transitions have defined something bigger than just history; our evolution.

 

I had written about the obsolescence of imperialism in today’s world (https://lifeingigahertz.blogspot.com/2020/05/crimea-river.html) and how the same begets diminishing returns. But while the world maneuvers through challenging times, China, has started serving us it’s Revenge Soup, a dish served (cold) after brewing for a century (of humiliation). For those who like to maintain lists, the smallest one today would surely be titled: China’s Friends. With the middle kingdom, all that is needed to suffer a territorial dispute is physical proximity. If you live near China, then Beijing wants your land.

 

2020 has taught us how fragile our comfort zones are. The marvels of the last century, from industrialization, technology, globalization and digital prosperity, have all been proven weak in front of life threatening events like the corona virus spread. Fundamentals of economic demand and supply failed in the absence of emotional or psychological demand (i.e. People, with money refusing to buy goods / services). The business of excess, that boosted global consumerism and gave rise to double-digit growth, lies idle, shattering the virtual value bubble we had assumed as our datum. Fiat currencies served well for naturalizing virtual wealth derived from hedges and futures, fooling us into a manipulative transactional system. However, bereft of a gold standard, the same do not shoulder the strength to stabilize a real crash when the astronomical debt will need physical mitigation.

 

This is where China has modulated from imperialism to expansionism. Realizing that a majority of money wealth today is just bytes on a system and can be manipulated and controlled through democratic banking systems, the yearning of the “Real” estate as the scale of future power and influence is what china seeks. Be it through debt-traps, military posturing or straight buyouts, china is after land, the one resource completely out of production. In 2014, China supplanted Canada as the largest share of foreign buyers of US residential real estate, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. In 2018 dollars, Chinese buyers accounted for roughly 25% of total foreign investment in US residential real estate. The case is the same in other countries, like in Africa where large agricultural tracts now bear Han ownership to even military bases in Djibouti that fit the three considerations of property ownership: location, location and location.

 

As an emotional response, one would say it is instinctive that "the child who is not embraced by the village will burn it down to feel its warmth” but this is where countries need to differ from individuals. It is complex to void responsibility of ills inflicted by past generations but once we graduate from individual to national consciousness, the current greater good deems higher precedence than past balance sheets. And if we all apply salt to historical hurt, then the whole humanity would be at conflict with itself and probably would have self destroyed by now. But with the passage of time, complicated human nature has accepted the reality of forgetting, even if not forgiving, history.

 

Coming back to time and it’s analog nature, we are all just in phases of our existence. Centuries ago, Rome was the biggest power, Greece in another time, Mongols once reigned the world, Cholas ruled the seas and Sun did not set under the Union Jack. Yet here we are today, a new phase with new players trying to rule the world.  A few millennia from now, this all will just be timestamps and faded memories.

 

If we apply the convoluted historical logic for claims, should India be asking for the Maurya Empire, or the Chola, or the Mughal? How far back do we go? As the fourth largest country in the world, a few or even a few thousand square miles will not change the geography of China and even a few million square miles wont douse its greed justified by the excuse of humiliation. Till China moves on to its next quest with the mindset of another phase of evolution, the world has no other way but to counter this animalistic urge with sticks and stones. India has a tough draw despite the Himalayan barrier and China’s assertions now border on humour with perpetual changing boundary claims and hankering on global media platforms, ironically banned in its own mainland. For a nation focused on human upliftment, we are doing well in handling these sideshows. We can just go ahead making more friends; it is for the Chinese to see how far do they want to go before being consumed by their own fire.