Corona Blues

A Lot has been written and discussed on the mortality and economic effect of the Corona Virus. While these aspects are the statistical top of the ‘impact list’, murmurs of the psychological / mental health issues have started to creep up and demand attention. The sparse literature available on the mental health consequences of epidemics relates more to the sequelae of the disease itself than to the aftermath of life in social distancing like scenarios. However, large-scale disasters, whether traumatic (insurgencies), natural (earthquakes), or environmental (severe air pollution), are almost always accompanied by increases in depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), substance use disorder and a broad range of other mental and behavioural issues.

In the context of the COVID-19, acceptance is forming around the fact that this is just the beginning and it appears likely that there will be a major increase in the mental health shock. Medical journals are on it, splicing details to offer technical addendums in all specialties engaged in combating the virus. But for the uninitiated, like me, science has always been a catalog of nature, with maths thrown in to ensure that not many understand it. This time, while one may not understand the change, we can surely feel it.

The most severe impact is obviously from direct personal suffering. Getting infected is a slide down the rabbit hole with the fear of the unknown paralysing life. Recoveries remain the ray of hope but experiences of the many who got back are yet to be analysed. Despite alarming numbers, the biggest share relates to the bulk of humanity confined to homes. Lockdowns have proved to be the only preventive option working as of now and have warranted people to drop all notions of routine and stick to a lifestyle never considered normal.

Most of us at home, after overcoming the initial hysteria of panic buying, positively comprehended the call to stay indoors. As time progressed, the bliss of solitude, clean air and togetherness transformed into an uneasy reaction of habit withdrawals. Aspects considered a given like eating out, travel and socialising converted into yearnings, the suppression of which gave rise to a newer emotional self. There is some data on the psychological impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) on patients and health-care workers, but not much is known about the long-term mental health effects on ordinary citizens. Looking around, age related issues come to light.

For children and adolescents, such closures mean a lack of access to the resources and interactions they usually had through schools and now when schools are closed, they have lost a predictable anchor in life. College and university students are stressed about clustered hostel life and cancellation of anticipated events such as exchange studies and graduation ceremonies. Some even lost their part-time jobs as local businesses closed. Students in their final year are anxious about the job market and the financial burden of student loans. Across the bridge, breadwinners know well that ‘uncertainty’ is the softest word to describe the prevailing job market and the old retirees not only worry about health care but also the devaluation of their savings in the commercial market.  Now imagine, a combination of the above group, cooped inside a home, for a prolonged duration. Even the most resilient will show vulnerability, sooner of later.

Populations grouped as nations, expect their leadership and governance structures to alleviate them out of such crisis. Members of this governance combine like the state administration, police, doctors, health workers, conservancy staff, military etc thus transform into a duality of soldiering national service as well as being normal family members with same issues like all other citizens. Everyday, when a country as large and diverse as ours functions and survives, it is these elements of the nation’s steel frame that go out and ensure we get to fight another day.

The role of communication and information flow is huge in manoeuvring thought processes in such times. Inter personal communication primarily tends to focus on sharing of anxieties or the pretend of being ok. People seek hope and search for similarity of experiences from others to assume belongingness to common emotional groups. The media, despite getting an increased time-share from people’s lives, remains bound to corporation rules with news genre continuously bombarding sad numbers and failures and entertainment media catering to the doomsday theme of programming. You can check any news channel and it will have the omnipresent ticker of COVID affected and deaths.  Netflix will have Contagion trending and Whatsapp shares will have a serious helping of videos promoting gloom. 

As governments race to contain the corona virus, it is important to realise actions the society can take to mitigate the behavioural health impact of the pandemic and economic crisis. For every rupee spent on engaging and healing common mental disorders, a ten rupee return can be realised as improved health and productivity. Common sense initiatives like strengthening community prevention, integrating behavioural and physical health services and addressing unemployment and income disparities are the simplest ways forward to initiate and accelerate efforts towards reducing long-term psychosocial risks. A vital step here would be to leverage data and technology as predictive analytics to channelise prevention along with the use of AI and digital platforms (tele medicines & digital therapeutics) for connecting consumers seamlessly to evidence and measurement based care.

Every time I sat to blog this topic, the flow went through the rigours of reality and how we could engage it with the little we know. But the never-say-die inside, made me conclude the belief that our resilience has always been bigger than our threats. It is vital that communities seeking a “new normal” draw from their inherent strength and compassion to recognise, heal, and support those experiencing this human toll. As Mark Watney said in ‘The Martian’, There is no magic wand; all we can do is get to work.  You solve one problem and you solve the next one and then the next. And if you solve enough problems, you get to come home.

Can’t give up. Lets win.

Plan B

It is strange today that the world economies are crashing because people are only buying essentials. It is a complex matrix of consumerism, greed & diminishing returns within the Maslow’s hierarchies that makes people yearn for things, all the way from basic to luxury to outlandish. Economic studies lay out a usual trajectory for developing nations. First they make shoes, then steel. Then they move into cars, computers and cellphones. Eventually the most advanced economies tackle semiconductors and automation. As they climb up the manufacturing ladder, they abandon some cheaper goods along the way. That is what the United States, Japan and South Korea did.

The Industrial Revolution was one of the most important socioeconomic events in human history, perhaps as significant as the discovery of fire. Before that, humanity across all continents had lived essentially at a subsistence level, stagnating in the so-called Malthusian trap (Economic growth leading to increase in population leading to stagnation). The emergence of scientific supply-chains, modularity of container designs and global interconnectivity through the net, clustered economic activities in the places, which optimised gains. Places got branded as manufacturing hubs, financial hubs etc.

 As developed nations text-booked their policies & looked to offset low-end manufacturing, many countries lapped up orders. But China, went a step ahead and lapped up ecosystems. China’s means aside, the ends created a juggernaut that created rooted dependencies of economic convenience, nearly bordering on addiction. It became the one stop shop for any and every product and with prices that made capitalism proud. Then as the world’s factory, the middle kingdom vector summed its surpluses towards its version of society. The phrase, ‘everybody wants to rule the world’ is acceptable only as a song (Tears for Fears-1985). When someone conquers monopoly, human psychology pushes back.

The world has slowly but surely started seeing Trojans in the large-scale proliferations by China. Despite short term prudence, long lasting economic effects, political backlashes and the human cost of yet another modern day imperialist, has affected a convergence of ideals questioning the Xi Dynasty’s approach of bartering money for freedom. Stories of the Belt & Road Initiative as a debt trap, racialism against Africans, expansionist policies in South China Sea and the Covidisation of all other relationships, has left China with many trading partners but a few trusting friends.

Coming back home, India has been in pursuit of uplifting its masses towards benefits of the modern day world, but on a different path. A noisy society, the nation has been upholding of disagreements, free journalism, democracy and the cultural policy of taking everyone along. This may be slow, but is more in natural harmony with itself and others. I would not call it soft power, as it is more a civilizational attribute of mutual coexistence and balance.

Japan recently committed $2 Billion to relocate its industries from China. US & European business are seeking alternatives and other countries have been evaluating the cost of betrayal with defective testing kits and ineffective PPEs supplied by Beijing. With the world on a lookout for avenues, we have the initial bits to aspire confidence and welcome them, but the scale and speed expected would be the challenge that defines what we become. Opportunities cannot be taken as excuses; consumers are already exposed to quality and prices. Whatever the world offsets to us will come mapped with expectations and the next best option available will be a strong competition.

But we can’t become China, that would be a ridiculous plan. Plus the reasons why China is ‘Chinese’ like currency manipulations, dumping, environmental disregard, free-will suppression etc actually subsidises reality to give us the “China price”. As economies plan to shift away from this dependence, the “India price” appears to be as acceptable. 

For India, it will be political statesmanship and not electoral sloganeering that is needed to jump start the country away from the gloom. Investments towards future-prudence and not audit-prudence are needed to support the industrial backbone in gearing up for deliverance. Industrial ventures need to own the patriotism of nation building while executing businesses and India specific innovations will need to be cultured and embedded in making the best practices.

The world had plans, the systems were stabilising and anticipating growth on modelled trajectories, before the current crisis hit. Whether the world changes its existence habits and to what extent, will be decided by the duration and effects of the corona virus. It has nudged many to reconsider putting all eggs in one basket and that too one with high rewards but fatal risks. The plan needs to change.

What is a Plan without a Plan-‘B’.

COVID Rubicon

Biological Warfare is the use of biological toxins or infectious agents such as bacteria and viruses with the intent to kill or incapacitate humans, animals or plants as an act of war. However, as a tactical weapon for military use, a significant problem with a biological weapon attack is that it would take days to be effective, and therefore might not immediately stop an opposing force. But use of the same in a strategic offensive role, preemptive strikes, area denial and even sub-conventional bio terrorism is a well-recorded contingency.

So, is COVID-19 a form of Biological Weapon? While in its present configuration it has displayed high infectivity, high virulence and an efficient delivery system (human population), the problem is a lack of control on the flow of infection that could backfire and harm the military on the offensive, perhaps having even worse effects than on the target. So with the global impact on lives & livelihood, including on the country of origin, I will leave the burden of proof, on its military impact in the current form, to the experts.

But this case does bring the question that, are nations and militaries ready for Bio Warfare in view of the effects being seen in this COVID pandemic?

Traditionally, the business of war has been oriented towards warfare that brought impact, fulfilled political aims, stirred patriotic approval and gave plausible deniability for collateral damages. Nations have anticipated and militaries have prepared, primarily, for kinetic operations. This, despite the acknowledgement of NBC, cyber, economic and asymmetric threats, is historically and statistically justified. But now that we have crossed the COVID Rubicon, ignorance cannot be an excuse.

In the Indian context, the usual enemies have either posed conventional threats or promoted insurgencies. Bio warfare, though known, has been appreciated as a national threat instead of a military one. While we have a well-developed biotechnology infrastructure that includes numerous pharma production facilities and labs as well as qualified scientists, the infrastructure required for containing, isolating, treating and decontaminating had to be modified from the existing structures.

The military, as a frontline agency of response, prioritises ‘survivability’ as a precondition for effective engagement. Well-drilled battle procedures can catalyse the delivery of expertise existing as a national pool and should remain, as the vital take away in using military might in such crisis. Defensive bio warfare operations and medical counter-measures are an inescapable convergence in this field and their success largely depends on effective surveillance. We also need to create a unified response including the articulation that as per our nuclear doctrine a bio-war attack on India is a WMD attack.

Dense population, deprived sanitation facilities along with congenial climatic conditions make India vulnerable for the spread of infectious diseases caused by biological agents. Besides being lethal, the psychological impact of bioweapons is equally damaging and long lasting. The impact includes horror, panic, fear of the invisible, anger towards government, suspicion, social isolation, demoralisation and loss of faith in social institutions. So, while we tackle the current situation, concurrent planning and capacity building needs to be done to mitigate the middle and long-term impact.

Events like this are evolutionary landmarks, and in evolution, the prepared survive and the specialists thrive. Bio warfare threats need to be tackled by an organisation of multi-disciplinary experts including, biologists, doctors, administrators, lawmakers & military, at the apex level. Traditional hierarchies, procedures and structures will need flexible modulation to suit requirements. Both planning and executing agencies will have to be self aware and self-learning as the bio-agent will be the action determinant and not the reactive forces.

The best time to re-define our notion of security and develop capacities was ten years ago. The second best is now.

Notion of War

Recent history has seen plenty of violence. Wars have been a staple fixture with incrementally evolving conflicts. Hollywood, history books and television have painted an image of wars that portrays the romance of soldiers, weapons and their physical effects. With these concepts in mind and the idea of victory defined by boots on ground, the militaries have mechanically been preparing for the same. 

Well, defence planners do think about how wars will manifest in future and try to stay with the curve however, constraints ensure that the gaps are seldom bridged. Leaderships are comfortable in reaping the past, managing the present, and bidding for the future. But with great vision comes great budgetary constraint coupled with the political prudence of balancing constitution with constituency. So what does become of war and how do we fight them?

Imagine a scenario of war, where the military of men & weapons has no means to engage the attack against itsnation. It is not a thing of the future; it is a case from the now. The COVID-19 is nothing short of a biological DDOS (Distributed Denial of Service) attack. There are already analysts drawing the origin and the identity of the attackers, but those semantics do not change the reality where the whole world has been reduced to collateral damage. 

Could this have been imagined? The “I told you so” aside, serious predictions are limited to international boundaries and countries mostly commit national resources to protect their geographical masses. So to blame someone, for not seeing something smaller than the wavelength of light, would at best satisfy opinion, but not reason. 

The logic of predicting such non-conventional threats has already dawned upon us. This may partially take away the glamour of legacy security structures, but is more of a case of mental flexibility than hardware reorientation. Conflicts may change fast, combat follows slowly. As a national resource, military structures during non-war times are also the redundancies available with a country to mitigate crisis requirements. Thus, at home, there is farsightedness in strengthening military logistical structures while balancing combat elements in the kinetic and non-kinetic genres. Benefits of military doctors, transport aircraft and sturdy support services are all there for us to see.

To strengthen ourselves, we need to practice social distancing from each other and economic distancing from China. After this situation stabilizes, having to choose again between life and livelihood will be criminal. I have written how a strong domestic manufacturing is vital to our future (http://tiny.cc/gigtmz). However, a doctrine of expanding capacities is not as straightforward as producing more. We also need self-sufficiency in critical fields like energy, health care, agriculture, supply chains, storage, distribution and most importantly the last mile connectivity. The crisis has exposed how fragile these aspects are with invisible cogs like migrant workers and the rest of the unorganized economy.

A reluctance is seen in owning up the need to protect our way of life. West has been stripping people of shoes at the airports for 20 years because of one attack in 2001. It is time we take allowance for protecting ourselves after centuries of invasions and subjugations. We need to stop thinking about warfare as only lines on a map, firepower and territory. A shock to our way of life, a disruption of normal and a question on our tomorrow is war and we are in it.

Opportunity, Innovation, Delivery and Crisis

Canned food, Velcro, Water purifiers, Camera phones and Infrared thermometers, just a few of the innovations that came out from a necessity crisis and are today routine household inventory. We today are living in interesting times. I might sound overly optimistic while the world is stewing in the COVID-19 Manchurian, but after transitioning to the fifth stage of grief, thinking ahead is the only logical option.

I have written before how this current crisis will end up changing how we define ‘normal’ (http://tiny.cc/m58emz). Still, we will survive and continue to flourish. Life with this new virus will warrant changes and our success will depend on how we adapt. There is probably nobody whose personal or business life has not been affected, at least to some degree, by the current crisis. Indeed, in the time between writing this and you reading it, I suspect a some more would have changed. 

Lockdowns have offered us the opportunities to surf the web in plenty. Social media and info-sharing websites are ripe with many innovations being showcased to offset the limits imposed by the situation. From low cost, hands free washing setups, in-house non-contact thermometers, PPE etc. Human creativity is taking on the deadly virus and its widespread effects. But there is more to the fertile nature of a crisis that leads to innovation than simply the opportunities to solve issues. Difficult times present unique conditions that allow people to think, manoeuvre & rapidly create, impactful solutions. For learning minds, these conditions provide the opportunity to re-engineer processes incorporating changes by reducing variance and promoting incremental innovation.

The Indian story today is intertwined with the global narrative, however the solutions we need require a design harmonisation with our unique conditions of both geography and demography. The scale of the problems and the unavoidable need of isolation have today made nations inwards looking, leaving limited scope for collaboration. This has presented the need for up-scaling integral capacities and ensuring that basic sustainment is confined within the national borders.

 Innovations in life essential fields are vital and are today at various stages of development. The trick now is to ensure how these are engineered into successful products with the Make-in-India pride and the affordability, effectiveness & desirability pushing consumer demand. This, once mass scaled with distribution and revenue prudence, will truly make the lifestyle changing ideas a reality. It is easier to predict technology than predicting societies. Most likely we will see habit changes, changes in short and mid-term spending patterns and even changes in our notion of security.  We may also see an increase in behaviours like flight to the familiar, loss aversion and risk aversion, which are textbook responses to risk, fear and uncertainty.  How long this lasts remains a question, but there will be short and medium and long term opportunities if we can reorient innovation streams towards value, risk reduction, familiarity, psychological safety, and even nostalgia.  

The way ahead, with inputs as on today goes through increased government orders on indigenous industry with the industry delivering world class products and services and not just enjoying the glory of protectionism. The complete production, procurement & consumption ideals needs overhaul. This, whether we like it or not, will happen because of the changes in the consumer behaviour, however whether we are able to emerge stronger as a nation or this leads us to yet another increase on foreign imports will be our defining moment.

The normal entrepreneur will always be ready to quickly modify his processes and engage the short and medium term needs. But it takes a Statesman like vision and Spartan focus to see the innovation pipeline through in the long term, modulate the convergence of global supply chains and navigate the economic matrix involving people and governments. Populations will need to change but will urge to hold on. Let us hope to see the rise of Indian brands with Indian solutions to Global problems. Let us start. No seed ever sees the plant.